Here's to hoping AccuWeather fails to live up to its name. This morning, the premier private weather service released a grim forecast predicting hotter-than-average temperatures, yet again, for the United States this summer. The heat will be joined with lower-than-average rainfall in the Southwest and Rocky Mountains, very likely stoking conditions for major wildfires, the service predicts.
But AccuWeather released its forecast with a caveat: This is not necessarily because of global warming.
"The weather events that occur in individual seasons don't provide conclusive proof of global warming," says Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster for AccuWeather. Bastardi says weather conditions are parallel to what's been witnessed in the 1930s through 1950s, when heat waves repeatedly blasted the United States and hurricanes battered the coasts. The primary driver of the nasty weather: a transition from warm to normal or cool waters in the Pacific.
Still, the long-term trends are growing increasingly worrisome. Globally, the surface temperature for this April was the third highest on record, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Alaska had its fourth-warmest April on record. And 2006 topped the charts since records began in the United States 112 years ago. Nine of the hottest years on record have occurred in the past 25. Many factors are at play, including El Nino cycles, but even these cycles are affected by overall warming trends.
This isn't just bad for the planet's health. Summer is known as air pollution season by the experts, because the building blocks of smog form best when heated. Accordingly, smog decreases when the sun goes down. A surge in power-plant output also contributes to pollution, especially in the coal-dominated East Coast, as people fire up air conditioners to keep themselves out of the disturbingly hot summers--and bad outdoor air quality.
--Bret Schulte
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