Pentagon Adviser: Taliban Think They Can Outlast U.S. Troops

The idea was to conduct a strategic withdrawal, build up the ANSF and blunt the insurgency so the Afghan's could hold out for 10 years, at which point via attrition the Taliban would run over the top of the ANSF and we will enter civil war, the remnants of the ANSF probably around 25,000, to be integrated into the NI alliance, in which case we can hold out for another 10 years.

Denying the Taliban control of the country until 2035. By 2035 Pakistan will have collapsed and not be in a position to aid the Taliban. Omar will be dead.

At some point during that period the security situation will change that we would need a lighter foot print, with no permanent bases in Afghanistan, when the US is forced to withdraw the 25,000 residual force due to the security situation. Because it is either that or we draw up again to 140,000, which is not going to happen.

But fear not stay the coursers, operation will continue from bases in the region, mother ships and temporary FOB set up in country to support JSOC/CIA operations.

I defined winning by denying the Taliban control of Afghanistan as long as that matter is in dispute no one has won or lost in the Afghan conflict, the Taliban cannot declare victory. But the objective is achieved deny the Taliban control which denies al-Qaida a safe haven.

As long as I could do that I am Charlie Sheen, at which point the US will have been involved in some form or another in Afghanistan since 2001 to 2035. Is that long enough for all the stay the coursers.

Key objectives hence reason strategic withdrawal, take the leverage away supply of logistics and cut aid to Pakistan. It limits their ability to respond if tier one targets are interdicted inside Pakistan, it also increase US deterrence to terror attacks that may come out of Pakistan against the US. Meaning shock and awe. ( not having 140,000 troops in country which are reliant on Pakistan for the supply of logistics is a key advantage for US policy and flexibility.)

(Regardless of my ties with Russia, the Afghan government relations with Russia and the supply of logistics by-passing Pakistan, is an Russian/Afghan matter.)

Because as with Bin Laden they do not have Afghanistan as a safe haven so they are denied, deniability. Because regardless which 10 year period JSOC and the CIA will interdict al-Qaida inside Afghanistan, whether the US has a presence in country or from overseas bases.

That is what victory looks like in a war with no end. That is pretty much how it is going to play out in the future, regardless of the bickering over 2013 or 2014, or the residual force structure.

The key is to protect the US, without destroying it in the process.

Matt of TX 10:09AM February 03, 2012