The Evolving Extremist Threat
The Islamic State group’s plan to promote violence worldwide is bearing fruit.
Tashfeen Malik, left, and Syed Farook, who killed and injured dozens of people in San Bernardino, were radicalized, the FBI said Monday.
Each step toward a conclusion that the assailants in the San Bernardino mass shooting were inspired by the Islamic State group carries with it the possibility of an even more dire reality: The extremists' strategy is starting to work here at home.
Once primarily focused on drawing its brand of the faithful to a so-called caliphate in the Middle East, the Islamic State group has increasingly urged its followers to conduct attacks on foreign soil. Last year, following airstrikes by the U.S. and France targeting the group, a leader called for followers to target Westerners in return.
"Raid their homes. Cut off their heads. Do not let them feel secure," the leader said in an audio recording.
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Wednesday's attack in Southern California was among a handful of incidents on U.S. soil inspired by the Islamic State group. Authorities say one of the assailants, Tashfeen Malik, had pledged allegiance to the group on Facebook, while the father of Malik's husband and fellow attacker, Syed Farook, said his son supported the extremists' plans to create an Islamic caliphate.
Last month, an 18-year-old upset after being kicked out of a study group was fatally shot after stabbing four people at the University of California-Merced, and a printout of an Islamic State group flag reportedly was found among his belongings. In May, a gunman who opened fire at a site in Texas hosting a Prophet Muhammad cartoon contest pledged his allegiance to the group on Twitter before the attack, which wounded a security guard.
It appears Malik and Farook's plans for their assault did not originate from the terrorists' headquarters in Syria, but all of these incidents suggest the Islamic State group's philosophy, designed to instill a sense of belonging that will inspire individuals to wage violence, has had some initial success. The attacks also undercut a U.S.-led response that, at least publicly, is primarily focused on defeating a tangible enemy in Syria and Iraq and those with whom that enemy communicates elsewhere.
In a prime-time address to the nation on Sunday, President Barack Obama noted the shifting nature of terrorism faced by the West, highlighting U.S. efforts that have focused on "decimating al-Qaida's leadership."
"Over the last few years, however, the terrorist threat has evolved into a new phase," Obama said. "As we've become better at preventing complex multifaceted attacks like 9/11, terrorists turn to less complicated acts of violence like the mass shootings that are all too common in our society."
Indeed, Malik and Farook dangerously undermine the pretext of more traditional counterterrorism efforts. Neither had a known criminal history. The couple was described by the Farook family's lawyers as living a religious but quiet and typical life. Both had traveled in the Middle East and Farook had established contact with suspected terrorists, but neither had provoked their own investigations.
"We have learned and believe that both subjects were radicalized and have been for quite some time," David Bowdich, assistant director in charge of the FBI's Los Angeles field office, told reporters Monday. "The question we're trying to get at is how did that happen and by whom and where did that happen. And I will tell you right now we don't know those answers at this point."
The couple's extremist activity may not end with support for the Islamic State group. A law enforcement official said Farook at some point made contact with the Syria-based and al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, as well as the Somalia-based al-Shabab, according to the Los Angeles Times. Al-Qaida is an established opponent of the Islamic State group, and both organizations are among those whose followers have defected during the Islamic State group's rise to power over the last two years.
Yet any evidence that the Islamic State group has provoked a global war for which the U.S. is unprepared surely delights its leaders. It also broadens the front lines of a war that increasingly demands a multifaceted response.
"The biggest problem is understanding what pattern this fits into," says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It takes all of your strategies to deal with internal problems and throws them up in the air. Suddenly you have a threat and you can't figure out what the telltale signs are."
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At the forefront of the U.S. debate in the coming months will be the extent to which the government can collect electronic information about those who haven't committed crimes. Surveillance programs operated by the National Security Agency sparked outrage when they were revealed through leaks by former agency contractor Edward Snowden, but both the Paris terror attacks last month and the San Bernardino shooting have renewed claims that such measures are critical to Americans' security.
Also central will be the government's ability to partner with those who work closest with the Islamic State group's prime recruiting targets.
"It is the case almost always that when someone has self-radicalized and is turning to violence, there is somebody else that sees the signs," Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson said Monday. "So we need to build bridges, build relationships with Muslim communities across this country and not vilify them, not drive them in the exact opposite direction."
Johnson also said Monday the U.S. will be rolling out a new terror alert system – the third iteration since the Sept. 11 attacks – that will better reflect "the current environment and current realities."
While domestic agencies build partnerships at home, however, the U.S. must continue to wage war against hard-line zealots abroad. Obama on Sunday called on Congress to approve a new war authorization specifically against the Islamic State group, and for greater cooperation between private companies and law enforcement agencies to ensure potential attackers can't use electronic means to foil counterterrorism efforts. He also ordered the departments of State and Homeland Security to review policies for the fiancee visa Malik used to enter the country.
But the president did not shift from his strategy to defeat the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, which has slowly expanded in the last year but is still limited to airstrikes, trainers in Iraq, and the use of special operations forces.
Obama's critics, including Sen. John McCain, say the president is ignoring the potential dangers emanating from the Middle East.
"Apocalyptic terrorists cannot be allowed to have sanctuary in ungoverned spaces from which to plan attacks against us," the Arizona Republican said in a statement shortly after Obama's remarks. McCain has for months called for the implementation of a no-fly zone in Syria and a sharp escalation of U.S. forces deployed to Iraq. "Yet after more than a year of an indecisive military campaign, [the Islamic State group] maintains its sanctuaries in Iraq and Syria from which to conduct and inspire attacks like Paris and San Bernardino."
