"The chances of collision are probably greater between a Chinese aircraft and a Japanese aircraft," says Glaser, the senior adviser for Asia at CSIS. "Particularly on the Chinese side, you may have a young, inexperienced pilot, particularly when it comes to evasive tactics and maneuvers."
Two of President Barack Obama's closest former advisers pointed to the Hainan incident on talk show appearances Sunday.
"You have obviously major powers there, China, Korea and Japan. China has unilaterally undertaken a set of steps here which instead of lowering tensions, increase tensions," said Tom Donilon, who served as a counselor to Obama for national security matters since his 2008 campaign, and formally as national security advisor from 2010 to 2013.
"They really do present the prospect of the possibility of miscalculation and mistake," he said, while speaking on ABC News' This Week, adding of the Hainan incident, "it's that risk of miscalculation and mistake that we need to be very concerned about going forward here."
Former National Security Agency and CIA Director Michael Hayden told Fox News Sunday China's move to establish the ADIZ is "dangerous and dumb."
"They treat the South China Sea or they want to treat the South China Sea the way you and I treat Lake Michigan. No one is going to accept that," said Hayden.
The U.S. barely capped the boiling tensions following the 2001 collision before it spun out of control, he said.
"This is bad from the Chinese perspective. I really don't understand why they did it," Hayden said.