"All the information I have says it's really close but I favor Sanford in the end because of the district," he says.
Colbert Busch, a businesswoman and sister of famous comedian Stephen Colbert, also might be undone by the Green Party candidate in the race, Eugene Platt, who is pulling about 4 percent of the vote, according to PPP.
"You wonder if [Platt} may end up being a spoiler," Kondik says.
The ramifications of the race are up for dispute, with Woodard saying a Colbert Busch victory significant and Kondik disagreeing.
"If she can win this race, it's a big feather in their cap from which to build for 2014 in the gubernatorial race," Woodard says, noting the entire South has drifted toward Republicans over the past 20 years, with the exception of congressional districts drawn around black voters. "If they can beat a former governor in South Carolina, nationally this is a big win for the Democrats."
But Kondik says special elections are just that – special.
"The circumstances of these special elections are just really strange a lot of the time," he says. "The issues in this race were not national ones, they were about Sanford's personal conduct. I would definitely caution against trying to take national lessons from this race."
Both say that even if Colbert Busch wins, Republicans would still be favored to win back the seat in 2014.