Supporters of Barack Obama react as television networks projected him the winner of the 2008 election during his election night rally at Grant Park on Nov. 4, 2008, in Chicago, Illinois.
Everyone's got an opinion on the presidential election. Some pull passively for their candidate as they would their favorite sports team. Some advocate, doing their best to persuade people to their candidate's side. Others analyze, using polls and data to game out likely scenarios or forecasts.
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Whichever category one falls into, most agree this year's presidential election is close. The nation's 100 biggest newspapers are nearly split with their endorsements, both candidates have led in the national polls at one time or another, and many of the swing state polls show the candidates within a few percentage points. Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have clear paths to victory. Only when final ballots are counted—and who knows when that will be—will we truly know how the presidential race shakes out. Until then, here's what the top political pollsters and pundits predict will happen. And stay tuned tomorrow (or whenever the final winner is announced) since U.S. News will update this list on who got it right and who got it wrong.
| Name | Organization | Electoral College Prediction | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ari Fleischer | CNN | Romney: 271 - Obama: 267 | Romney |
| Charlie Cook | Cook Political Report* | Obama: 271 - Romney: 267 | Obama |
| Chris Cillizza | Washington Post | Obama: 277 - Romney: 261 | Obama |
| David Weigel | Slate | Romney: 276 - Obama: 262 | Romney |
| Dick Morris | Fox News | Romney: 325 - Obama 213 | Romney |
| Ed Morrisey | Hot Air | Romney: 311 - Obama: 227 | Romney |
| Ezra Klein | Washington Post | Obama: 290 - Romney: 248 | Obama |
| George Will | Washington Post | Romney: 321 - Obama: 217 | Romney |
| Glenn Beck | The Blaze | Romney: 321 - Obama: 217 | Romney |
| James Pethokoukis | American Enterprise Institute | Romney: 301 - Obama: 227 | Romney |
| Jim Cramer | CNBC | Obama: 440 - Romney: 98 | Obama |
| Josh Barro | Forbes | Obama: 305 - Romney: 233 | Obama |
| Juan Williams | Fox News | Obama: 298 - Romney 240 | Obama |
| Karl Rove | American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS | Romney: 285 - Obama: 253 | Romney |
| Lanny Davis | Lanny Davis and Associates LLC | Obama: 281 - Romney: 257 | Obama |
| Larry Kudlow | CNBC | Romney: 330 - Obama: 208 | Romney |
| Larry Sabato | UVA Center for Politics | Obama: 290 - Romney: 248 | Obama |
| Matt Yglesias | Slate | Obama: 303 - Romney: 235 | Obama |
| Michael Barone | Washington Examiner | Romney: 315 - Obama: 223 | Romney |
| Nate Cohn | The New Republic/Electionate Blog | Obama: 303 - Romney: 235 | Obama |
| Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight Blog | Obama: 332 - Romney: 235 | Obama |
| Pollster | Huffington Post* | Obama: 332 - Romney: 303 | Obama |
| Polltracker | Talking Points Memo* | Obama: 303 - Romney: 235 | Obama |
| Real Clear Politics | RealClearPolitics.com* | Obama: 303 - Romney: 235 | Obama |
| Robert Reich | UC-Berkeley/Huffington Post | Obama: 285 - Romney: 253 | Obama |
| Ross Douthat | New York Times | Obama: 271 - Romney: 267 | Obama |
| Sam Wang | Princeton Election Consortium | Obama: 332 - Romney: 206 | Obama |
*Indicates toss-up states have been removed from electoral vote maps to decide prediction.
More News:
- Nation's Biggest Newspapers Favor Obama, But Many Disillusioned
- Where They Stand: the Final Polls of the 2012 Election
- True The Vote Barred In Ohio County
Seth Cline is a reporter for U.S. News and World Report. You can follow him on Twitter or reach him at scline@usnews.com.
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