Keeping Track: Pundits and Pollsters and Their Presidential Predictions

A collection of the presidential forecasts of Washington's biggest political prognosticators.

Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama react as television networks projected Obama the winner of the election during his election night rally at Grant Park on November 4, 2008 in Chicago, Illinois. Americans elected Democrat Barack Obama as their first black president in a transformational election which will reshape US politics and reposition the United States on the world stage.
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Everyone's got an opinion on the presidential election. Some pull passively for their candidate as they would their favorite sports team. Some advocate, doing their best to persuade people to their candidate's side. Others analyze, using polls and data to game out likely scenarios or forecasts.

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Whichever category one falls into, most agree this year's presidential election is close. The nation's 100 biggest newspapers are nearly split with their endorsements, both candidates have led in the national polls at one time or another, and many of the swing state polls show the candidates within a few percentage points. Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have clear paths to victory. Only when final ballots are counted—and who knows when that will be—will we truly know how the presidential race shakes out. Until then, here's what the top political pollsters and pundits predict will happen. And stay tuned tomorrow (or whenever the final winner is announced) since U.S. News will update this list on who got it right and who got it wrong.

Name Organization Electoral College Prediction Predicted Winner
Ari Fleischer CNN Romney: 271 - Obama: 267 Romney
Charlie Cook Cook Political Report* Obama: 271 - Romney: 267 Obama
Chris Cillizza Washington Post Obama: 277 - Romney: 261 Obama
David Weigel Slate Romney: 276 - Obama: 262 Romney
Dick Morris Fox News Romney: 325 - Obama 213 Romney
Ed Morrisey Hot Air Romney: 311 - Obama: 227 Romney
Ezra Klein Washington Post Obama: 290 - Romney: 248 Obama
George Will Washington Post Romney: 321 - Obama: 217 Romney
Glenn Beck The Blaze Romney: 321 - Obama: 217 Romney
James Pethokoukis American Enterprise Institute Romney: 301 - Obama: 227 Romney
Jim Cramer CNBC Obama: 440 - Romney: 98 Obama
Josh Barro Forbes Obama: 305 - Romney: 233 Obama
Juan Williams Fox News Obama: 298 - Romney 240 Obama
Karl Rove American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS Romney: 285 - Obama: 253 Romney
Lanny Davis Lanny Davis and Associates LLC Obama: 281 - Romney: 257 Obama
Larry Kudlow CNBC Romney: 330 - Obama: 208 Romney
Larry Sabato UVA Center for Politics Obama: 290 - Romney: 248 Obama
Matt Yglesias Slate Obama: 303 - Romney: 235 Obama
Michael Barone Washington Examiner Romney: 315 - Obama: 223 Romney
Nate Cohn The New Republic/Electionate Blog Obama: 303 - Romney: 235 Obama
Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight Blog Obama: 332 - Romney: 235 Obama
Pollster Huffington Post* Obama: 332 - Romney: 303 Obama
Polltracker Talking Points Memo* Obama: 303 - Romney: 235 Obama
Real Clear Politics RealClearPolitics.com* Obama: 303 - Romney: 235 Obama
Robert Reich UC-Berkeley/Huffington Post Obama: 285 - Romney: 253 Obama
Ross Douthat New York Times Obama: 271 - Romney: 267 Obama
Sam Wang Princeton Election Consortium Obama: 332 - Romney: 206 Obama

 *Indicates toss-up states have been removed from electoral vote maps to decide prediction.

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Seth Cline is a reporter for U.S. News and World Report. You can follow him on Twitter or reach him at scline@usnews.com.