When Mitt Romney asks voters if they're better off than they were four years ago, the message may play better in Arizona than in Michigan.
That's because by one key measure, many Rust Belt residents have seen more of an economic boost since President Barack Obama took office than workers in other parts of the country. A U.S. News analysis of Labor Department data finds that nine of the ten cities that have seen the largest net improvements in the unemployment rate since January 2009, when the president took office, are in the Rust Belt. Meanwhile, five of the cities that have posted the largest net unemployment increases are in the West.
According to Labor Department data, these are the 10 metropolitan areas that have seen the largest net declines in the unemployment rate since January 2009.
| Metro Area | Jan. 2009 Jobless Rate | Aug. 2012 Jobless Rate | Change |
| Elkhart-Goshen, Ind. | 17.2 | 9.1 | -8.1 |
| Sandusky, Ohio | 11.0 | 6.7 | -4.3 |
| Monroe, Mich. | 12.2 | 8.0 | -4.2 |
| Holland-Grand Haven, Mich. | 10.4 | 6.8 | -3.6 |
| Flint, Mich. | 12.9 | 9.4 | -3.5 |
| Muskegon-Norton Shores, Mich. | 12.3 | 9.0 | -3.3 |
| Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Penn. | 11.4 | 8.1 | -3.3 |
| Toledo, Ohio | 10.8 | 7.6 | -3.2 |
| Lima, Ohio | 10.1 | 7.3 | -2.8 |
| Danville, Va. | 11.1 | 8.3 | -2.8 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data are seasonally adjusted.
And these are the metro areas where the jobless rate has seen the largest net growth:
| Metro Area | Jan. 2009 Jobless Rate | Aug. 2012 Jobless Rate | Change |
| Yuma, Ariz. | 21.1 | 27.1 | +6.0 |
| Ocean City, N.J. | 9.9 | 13.9 | +4.0 |
| Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, N.J. | 10.7 | 14.3 | +3.6 |
| Grand Junction, Colo. | 5.6 | 9.2 | +3.6 |
| Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J. | 9.8 | 13.1 | +3.3 |
| Pueblo, Colo. | 7.9 | 10.9 | +3.0 |
| Yuba City, Calif. | 15.0 | 17.8 | +2.8 |
| Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash. | 6.6 | 9.3 | +2.7 |
| Fayetteville, N.C. | 7.7 | 10.4 | +2.7 |
| Brownsville-Harlingen, Texas | 8.4 | 11.0 | +2.6 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Why some regions have fared so much better than others is in part a function of timing. The recession didn't hit the nation all at once, notes Jim Diffley, managing director of the U.S. Regional Economic Group for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight.
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"Depending upon the point in the cycle each state or metro was at right at that point in 2009, you'll get different results," he says. "One thing about the Rust Belt is it actually headed into recession before much of the rest of the country."
For example, the jobless rate rose sharply in early-to-mid-2008 in the Flint and Elkhart metro areas, but in Grand Junction, that spike didn't happen until late 2008 to early 2009. That means that starting the window in January 2009 misses a lot of Flint and Elkhart's spikes, while it captures a lot of Grand Junction's job losses.
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The divergence between regions is also about the story of manufacturing. Manufacturing took a nosedive when consumers pulled back their spending, especially on cars and other durable goods. That created pent-up demand, which made for more spending on those goods as consumers finally had the money to spend again. As manufacturers had shed so many jobs, says Diffley, it meant that they had to bulk their workforces back up as demand grew again.
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