There are more than 1.2 million Cubans in Florida and Brookings' Frey says the group tends to be "better off" and more politically conservative on economic and welfare issues than other Latino groups.
"Florida is the only state where a Cuban American will have a particular impact," Frey says. "Everything being equal, he might get a little bit of the vote to edge out a win for the GOP there, but I don't think he'll be a big game changer nationally."
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