Debt Downgrade Won't Have Much Short-Term Effect on Foreign Policy

Despite foreign criticism, America should maintain its world influence for now

August 9, 2011 RSS Feed Print
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Blame abounds in Washington over the country's downgraded sovereign debt rating, announced Friday by Standard and Poor's credit agency. So, it's not surprising that other world powers, like China and Russia, are weighing in also. [See how 2012 GOP candidates are blaming Obama for the debt crisis.]

China's state-run newspaper, Xinhua, ran a sharp editorial over the weekend scolding the United States for not having its economic and political house in order. "To cure its addiction to debts, the United States has to reestablish the common sense principle that one should live within its means," the article said, later adding, "A little self-discipline would not be too uncomfortable for the United States, the world's largest economy and issuer of international reserve currency, to bear."

And in a similarly pointed statement, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin compared the United States to a parasite. "The country is living in debt," Putin said on Monday. "It is not living within its means, shifting the weight of responsibility on other countries and in a way acting as a parasite."

Such public comments suggest that China and Russia are taking advantage of their grandstanding moment as a chance for the competing powers stick it to America. But, it's not likely, experts say, that the downgrade itself will do much to change America's foreign policy influence with these nations in the near future.

The recent S&P downgrade is just another excuse for foreign countries to call attention to America's problems, but the weaknesses have already been apparent for a while, says Francis Warnock, an international finance professor at the University of Virginia and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The downgrade is important mainly for anyone who wasn't paying attention the past year. The Chinese and Russians understand our problems and weaknesses. They don't need S&P to tell them. They'll use it to further chip away at our credibility, but we've made that very easy for them," he says. [Read how the debt ceiling debate reinforced China's negative views of America.]

The recent criticism from China in particular can also be read as frustration, says Nicholas Consonery, an Asia analyst at the Eurasia Group, a nonpartisan research firm headquartered in New York. China, after all, remains the United States' top foreign creditor, and as such, the success of its economy depends significantly on the stability of U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. "Their exposure to the dollar is a big vulnerability for them," he says. "They really don't have many options outside of the dollar exposure that they have. So, what you've seen throughout the past year is what we're going to continue to see, which is basically that Beijing expresses frustration, but they're not really able to change the fundamental fact that Beijing and the United States are in this together."

But even if the United States does maintain its high international regard for now, that doesn't mean the superpower is in the clear.

What the recent commentary might achieve in China, for example, is a shift domestically, as China's major investors in U.S. Treasuries are encouraged to diversify their assets down the road, says Kenneth Lieberthal, a senior fellow in foreign policy at the left-leaning Brookings Institution. Also, it could change how people around the world view America moving forward. "The way we have handled this recently—the, frankly, embarrassing circus that we have witnessed—has an impact in China and elsewhere in that it really affects negatively their view of America's future potential," Lieberthal says. "What's happened recently doesn't have an effect that you can measure by Tuesday...but when people think about the future, they're changing their odds making, and not for our benefit." [See a collection of political cartoons on the nation's debt.]

Tags:
economy,
China,
defense spending,
deficit and national debt,
federal budget,
global economy

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'Making further cuts to defense spending to dial down the nation's debt—which could happen later this year—could also have severe consequences for America's future standing in the world, according to Warnock. "The expected cuts in the defense budget will surely erode our influence­—much more than S&P can," he says.'

It is due to such wrong headed reasoning that our defense and military spending costs are so extraordinarily high. It's estimated that the Iraq and Afghanistan wars have cost or will cost in excess of $4 trillion. That is out of a current $14 trillion deficit.

These conflicts remind me of Vietnam in that years after that conflict, the only thing lasting from it was a decade of recession and bad memories, there is no continuing 'influence'. We have troubles here in our own country galore, let's stop trying to fix the rest of the world, which generally only causes more animosity toward the United States, and work on fix our crumbling infrastructure and rebuild our own home, not those of countries where our presence is resented and not even wanted.

Tim B of WA 4:26AM August 11, 2011

America is in decline and will remain in decline because America no longer produces or manufacturers anything. You cannot purchase a cellphone, television, dvd player, computer, fax machine, or mp3 player that is made in this country any longer. People wait in line to purchase the latest iPad, iPhone, or iPod - and these products are all made in China. There are now at least ten Tablets on the market that compete with the iPad and none of them are made in America. Android phones are the rage along with the iPhone and none of them are manufactured in America.

If you go to a department store to purchase mens clothing you rarely can find socks, underwear, shirts, and pants made in America, and if you go to the toy store to buy a gift for your child you cannot find toys made in America. If you go to a store selling appliances you will now see refrigerators, washers, and dryers from China and South Korea. High tech life saving medical equipment (that is also high priced) that used to always be made in America, no longer is.

A country that loses it manufacturing base is a country that is in decline. China's economy is booming because China is manufacturing goods that the world wants. Other than the food we purchase to put on our tables and jet planes what does America produce and manufacture anymore? When "Made in America" is a label you will rarely see then you know for certain that the road to recovery from our economic downturn is not going to be possible. When you cannot go to a clothing store, an appliance store, a store that sells consumer electronics, and an office supply store and cannot find anything that is made in America then you will realize that America will never be the economic powerhouse it once was.

Mark Jeffery Koch of NJ 11:01AM August 10, 2011

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