Republicans Poised to Make Big Gains in House, Senate

Pennsylvania Senate

Several polls show Republican Pat Toomey edging Democratic lawmaker Joe Sestak. A Quinnipiac University study shows Toomey leading 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters and 52 percent to 39 percent among independents. Five percent remain undecided, while 13 percent say they could change their mind before casting their ballot. A Muhlenberg College /Morning Call poll shows Toomey with a 48 percent to 44 percent edge, with 9 percent undecided. Meanwhile, a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey shows the pair in a statistical dead heat, with Toomey narrowly leading Sestak 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with a 3.46 percent margin of error. Both candidates earned a 35 percent favorability rating. A survey released by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Toomey leading 51 percent to 46 percent, and a McClatchy-Marist College poll shows Toomey leading by seven points.

[See photos of the Obamas behind the scenes.] 

Washington Senate

Three polls show the race between Democratic incumbent Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi in a virtual dead heat. A McClatchy-Marist College poll shows Murray edging Rossi 49 percent to 48 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. The poll also shows 62 percent of Republicans are "very enthusiastic" about voting compared to 52 percent of Democrats. A survey released by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Rossi leading Murray 50 percent to 48 percent, with a 2.2 percent margin of error. Rossi also leads among independents, 54 percent to 42 percent. Of voters who say they have already cast their ballots, 52 percent support Rossi while 47 percent back Murray. A Fox News/Rasmussen poll shows Murray edging Rossi 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, with a 3 percent margin of error.

[See who is donating to Murray.] 

Wisconsin Senate

Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold trails Republican Ron Johnson 45 percent to 52 percent among likely voters, according to a McClatchy-Marist College poll. Among those who support Johnson, 56 percent say they are "very enthusiastic" about voting compared to 48 percent of Feingold backers. Obama's approval rating among registered voters is 47 percent, though he won the state in 2008 with 56 percent of the vote.

[See who is giving to Feingold.] 

West Virginia Senate

Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese are virtually tied, according to a Rasmussen survey. Manchin leads Raese 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with a 4 percent margin of error. Meanwhile, a study by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Manchin with a five point lead over Raese, 51 percent to 46 percent. Manchin's approval rating is 70 percent, while Obama's is 31 percent in the state. 

• See a slide show of political predictions for 2010.
• Check out our editorial cartoons on the 2010 campaigns.
• See a slide show of 14 establishment candidates who lost to insurgents.

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