Republicans Poised to Make Big Gains in House, Senate

The GOP candidate is likely to win in the Arkansas senate race.

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Connecticut Senate

Two polls show Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leading Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, though the gap has narrowed in the past week. A Quinnipiac University poll shows Blumenthal with a nine point lead over McMahon, 53 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. The poll also shows that the majority of women back Blumenthal, 61 percent to 36 percent, while the majority of men support McMahon, 50 percent to 46 percent. McMahon lead among independents, 49 percent to 44 percent. The same poll last week had Blumenthal leading by 12 points. A Rasmussen poll shows Blumenthal leading 53 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with 1 percent undecided. The same poll last week showed Blumenthal with a 13 point lead.

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Florida Senate

Republican Marco Rubio has a 14 point lead over independent Gov. Charlie Crist in the state's three-way Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University survey. Among likely voters, 45 percent support Rubio, 31 percent back Crist and 18 percent say they will vote for Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek. Rubio also leads Crist among independents, 42 percent to 35 percent. But Crist leads Meek among Democrats, 47 percent to 42 percent. 

Illinois Senate

In the race for Obama's old Senate seat, Republican lawmaker Mark Kirk is leading Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 46 percent to 42 percent, according to a study released today by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. Kirk holds a significant lead among independents, 46 percent to 31 percent. Both candidates have low favorability ratings, 39 percent for Kirk and 35 percent for Giannoulias. 

Kentucky Senate

In the fight for retiring Republican Sen. Jim Bunning's seat, GOPer Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway 55 percent to 40 percent. Paul leads among independents 48 percent to 40 percent, and has 34 percent support among Democrats. The poll found that 62 percent disapprove of Obama.

[See a slide show of 11 hot races to watch on Election Day.]

Nevada Senate

Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican Sharron Angle are virtually tied in Nevada, according to a Democratic Public Policy Polling survey released today. Angle edges Reid 47 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with a 3.8 percent margin of error, and 52 percent to 38 percent among independents. 

[See where Reid's campaign cash comes from.]

Nevada's 3rd House District

First-term Democratic Rep. Dina Titus trails Republican Joe Heck by 10 points, according to a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll. Heck edges Titus 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. Titus has a 43 percent favorability rating in the state. Heck also leads among independents 57 percent to 39 percent. Titus won 47 percent of the vote in 2008 and represents a district that backed Obama two years ago but supported Bush in 2004.

[See an Opinion slide show of the 2010 elections' bad candidates.]

New Hampshire's 1st House District

Two-term Rep. Carol Shea-Porter trails Republican Frank Guinta by seven points, according to a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll. Guinta leads Shea-Porter 46 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, with 12 percent undecided. The district supported Obama in 2008 but backed Bush in 2004. 

Pennsylvania Senate

Several polls show Republican Pat Toomey edging Democratic lawmaker Joe Sestak. A Quinnipiac University study shows Toomey leading 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters and 52 percent to 39 percent among independents. Five percent remain undecided, while 13 percent say they could change their mind before casting their ballot. A Muhlenberg College /Morning Call poll shows Toomey with a 48 percent to 44 percent edge, with 9 percent undecided. Meanwhile, a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey shows the pair in a statistical dead heat, with Toomey narrowly leading Sestak 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, with a 3.46 percent margin of error. Both candidates earned a 35 percent favorability rating. A survey released by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Toomey leading 51 percent to 46 percent, and a McClatchy-Marist College poll shows Toomey leading by seven points.