2010 Elections Poll Roundup: House Dems Ailing Wednesday Polls

Wednesday's polls show signs of trouble for several two-term House Democrats in competitive districts, with a little less than two weeks to go until the 2010 election. These Democrats, in states like Pennsylvania, Illinois, Arizona and New Hampshire were first elected in 2006, the year their party swept both the House and Senate. Vulnerable Democratic Reps. Harry Mitchell of Arizona, Travis Childers of Mississippi and Christopher Carney of Pennsylvania who represent districts that voted for John McCain in 2008 are statistically tied with their GOP opponents. Also, Reps. Bill Foster of Illinois and Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire, who represent districts that supported Obama in 2008 but voted for George W. Bush in 2004 are in trouble. Foster is neck and neck with his Republican opponent while Shea-Porter is trailing by five points. However, two-term Rep. Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania opened up a 12 point lead over his GOP opponent in a district that voted for McCain in 2008. Meanwhile, Republican Marco Rubio has a significant lead in Florida's three-way Senate race and Republican Rob Portman leads by double digit in Ohio's Senate race. Here is a roundup of today's polls:

[Check out a roundup of political cartoons on the 2010 campaigns.] 

National:

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows 50 percent of likely voters want a Republican controlled Congress compared to 43 percent who prefer Democrats. The same poll found 53 percent of Republicans are interested in voting in 2010 compared to 40 percent of Democrats. 

Arizona's 5th House District

Two-term Representative Mitchell and Republican David Schweikert are in a statistical dead heat, according to a poll from The Hill and Penn Schoen Berland. Schweikert leads Mitchell 45 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, with a 4.9 percent margin of error. Mitchell beat Schweikert in the 2008 congressional race by 9 percentage points. President Obama's approval ratings in this district are 53 percent. McCain won this district in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote.

[See who is donating to Mitchell.] 

Colorado Senate

Sen. Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck remain in a statistical tie, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Buck holds a slight lead over Bennet, 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with a 4.9 percent margin of error. 

Florida Senate

In Florida's three-way Senate race, Republican Marco Rubio leads independent Gov. Charlie Crist 39 percent to 31 percent. Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek is trailing both of his opponents, with 22 percent among likely voters. The poll also found that 56 percent of likely Meek voters would choose Crist as a second option, while 8 percent would vote for Rubio. Additionally, 58 percent say the country is heading in the wrong direction and 52 percent approve of the job Obama is doing as president.

[See who is donating to Meek.] 

Illinois Senate

Republican Rep. Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias are in a virtual tie, according to a Rasmussen poll released today. With a 4 percent margin of error, Kirk takes a slight lead over Giannoulias, 44 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. The same poll last week showed Giannoulias with a one point lead. The two candidates are vying for Obama's old Senate seat. 

Illinois' 14th House District

First term Democrat Foster and Republican state Sen. Randy Hultgren are in a virtual tie, according to the Hill/Penn Schoen Berland. With a 4.9 percent margin of error, Hultgren leads Foster by one point, 43 percent to 42 percent, with 12 percent undecided. Among likely voters, 71 percent said Obama would be a factor when they vote in November, and 45 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as president. This district voted for Obama in 2008 but chose Bush in 2004. 

Illinois' 17th House District

Two-term Democratic Rep. Phil Hare is trailing Republican Bobby Schilling 38 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, according to the Hill/Penn Schoen Berland poll. Among independents, 50 percent say they would support Schilling compared to 29 percent for Hare. 

Mississippi's 1st District

First-term Democrat Childers trails Republican Alan Nunnelee, 39 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, the Hill/Penn Schoen Berland poll found with a 4.9 percent margin of error. The study also shows 63 percent disapprove of Obama and 71 percent said the president will be an important factor when they cast their votes. McCain won this district in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote. 

New Hampshire's 1st House District

Two-term Democrat Shea-Porter lags behind Republican Frank Guinta 42 percent to 49 percent among likely voters with a 4.9 percent margin of error, according to the Hill/Penn Schoen Berland poll. The survey found that 95 percent of Republicans say they will definitely vote compared to 89 percent of Democrats. The district voted for Obama in 2008 but supported Bush in 2004. 

Ohio Senate

Republican Rob Portman holds a 55 percent to 34 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In addition to Portman's 21 point lead, the survey found that among likely Ohio voters, 44 percent to 34 percent want the Republicans to take control of the Senate, and 54 percent to 40 percent want their next Senator to oppose Obama's policies.

[See an Opinion slide show of 5 ways a GOP majority should govern in 2011.]

Pennsylvania Senate

Rep. Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey are heading into their debate tonight in a statistical tie, according to a Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll released today. Sestak holds a narrow three point lead over Toomey, 44 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with a 5 percent margin of error. Of those surveyed, 15 percent are undecided about who they will vote for. The poll also found that 44 percent of likely voters would choose the Republican candidate while 39 percent would pick the Democrat. Obama's approval rating is 42 percent, according to the study. The candidates will debate tonight in Philadelphia.

[See a slide show of 11 hot races in November.] 

Pennsylvania's 4th House District

Two-term Democrat Altmire had a 12 point lead over Republican Keith Rothfus, 47 percent to 35 percent among likely voters, according to a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey released today. However, the president's disapproval rating is 56 percent in this district, which voted for John McCain over Obama 55 percent to 44 percent.

[Check out our editorial cartoons on President Obama.] 

Pennsylvania's 8th House District

Two-term Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy and Republican former Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick are in a statistical tie, according to the Hill/Penn Schoen Berland poll. Murphy edges Fitzpatrick 46 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, with 10 percent undecided. Murphy and Fitzpatrick fought against each other in another close race for this seat in 2006, and Murphy won by 1,500 votes. Obama won this district in 2008 with 54 percent of the vote.

Pennsylvania's 10th House District

Democratic two-term Carney and Republican Thomas Marino are tied, each taking 41 percent among likely voters according to the Hill/Penn Schoen Berland poll. However, 16 percent remain undecided. The poll also found that 59 disapprove of President Obama and 80 percent don't like the job Congress is doing. McCain won this district in 2008 with 54 percent of the vote. 

Washington Senate

Democratic Sen. Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi are in a statistical dead heat, according to a McClatchy-Marist poll. Murray takes a one point lead, edging Rossi 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, with a 4 percent margin of error. Murray's lead was larger among registers voters, 47 percent to 42 percent. Obama's job approval and disapproval ratings are relatively even, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving of the job he is doing as president. Obama won Washington in 2008 with 58 percent of the vote, 18 percentage points above McCain. The president is travelling to Washington today to campaign for Murray. 

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