With two weeks to go until the 2010 elections, today's polls do not bode well for vulnerable House Democrats in districts where President Obama's approval ratings are low. Incumbent Democratic Reps. Allen Boyd of Florida and Tom Perriello of Virginia are trailing their GOP opponents, and New York Rep. John Hall is in a statistical dead heat with Republican Nan Hayworth. There is good news for Democrats in New York and Maryland, where incumbent Sens. Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand and Barbara Mikulski hold double digit leads. Meanwhile, the Senate races in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin are virtually tied. Here is today's poll roundup:
A Gallup Poll shows that 48 percent of registered voters prefer a Republican candidate while 43 percent prefer a Democrat in the 2010 congressional elections.
Another Gallup Poll shows that former President Bill Clinton makes a more positive impact on voters than President Obama. Among Democrats, 53 percent said they are more likely to vote for the candidate Clinton campaigns for compared to 48 percent for Obama. Among Independents, 21 percent are for the Clinton candidates compared to 12 percent for the Obama candidates.
Three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is edging Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 48 percent to 44 percent, with a 3 percent margin of error, according to a Pulse Opinion Research poll sponsored by FOX News. Despite Boxer's 4 point lead in this poll, 50 percent don't think she is doing a good job as senator and 52 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, though 51 percent said the same of Fiorina. The same poll shows Democrat Jerry Brown leading Republican and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 48 percent to 43 percent in the state's gubernatorial race.
Republican Ken Buck and Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet are in a statistical tie, according to a Pulse Opinion Research poll sponsored by FOX News. Buck edges Bennet 46 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, with a 3 percent margin of error.
Florida's 2nd House District
Republican Steve Southerland opened up a 12 point lead over seven-term Democratic Rep. Allen Boyd, 50 percent to 38 percent, according to a Sunshine State News poll released today. The poll shows Boyd with a 33 percent favorability rating compared to Southerland's 45 percent. According to the same survey, President Obama's disapproval rating is 59 percent in this district, which covers the Tallahassee area. Boyd won at least 62 percent of the vote each time he ran for reelection.
Republican Rand Paul is leading Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway 47 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, according to a Rasmussen Poll released today. Less than a month ago, the same poll showed Paul with an 11 point lead. The two are fighting for retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning's seat.
Four-term incumbent Sen. Barbara Mikulski is leading Republican Maryland physician Eric Wargotz 55 percent to 38 percent, according to a Maryland-based Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies poll released today. The poll also found that in the state's 2010 primaries, Democratic likely turnout was down 27 percent from 2006, but the GOP turnout was up 23 percent.
In the race for retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond's seat, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt is leading Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, according to two polls. Blunt leads Carnahan 49 percent to 43 percent with a 3 percent margin of error in a Pulse Opinion Research poll sponsored by FOX News. The same poll shows Obama with a 54 percent disapproval rating.
The Democratic Public Policy Poll survey shows Blunt with a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Carnahan, with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Blunt leads Carnahan 46 percent to 31 percent among Independents. The survey also shows that 36 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of Republicans are likely to vote in November. In August, the same poll found more Republicans likely to vote, 38 percent to 33 percent.
New York Senate
Two-term incumbent Sen. Chuck Schumer is leading Republican small businessman Jay Townsend 61 percent to 21 percent, according to a New York Times poll released today. In addition to Schumer's 40 point lead, the survey also found 47 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of the senator, and 62 percent say he is doing a good job, while 81 percent didn't know enough about Townsend to have an opinion.
In New York's other Senate race, the same poll shows first year incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leading Republican Joe DioGuardi 50 percent to 25 percent. The poll shows 26 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Gillibrand, but 37 percent don't know enough to have an opinion. DioGuardi has 8 percent favorability while 69 percent don't know enough about him. According to the same poll, President Obama has a 53 percent job approval rating.
New York's 19th House District
The race between two-term incumbent Rep. John Hall and Republican Nan Hayworth is in a statistical dead heat, according to a Monmouth University poll released today. Hall edges Hayworth 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters. The poll also found 66 percent of voters think the country is on the wrong track and 56 percent disapprove of the job President Obama is doing. The survey also found 46 percent of voters want the GOP in charge of Congress next year, while 41 percent want Democrats. Obama won this district in 2008 with 51 percent to 48 percent. However, George W. Bush won it in 2004 with 54 percent to 45 percent.
Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey are in a statistical dead heat in the fight for Sen. Arlen Specter's Senate seat, according to the Democratic Public Policy Polling. Sestak edges Toomey 46 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with a 3.7 percent margin of error. The poll found that 82 percent of Republicans plan on voting for Toomey, while 77 percent of Democrats plan on voting for Sestak. The candidates will go head to head in a debate tomorrow night in Philadelphia.
Virginia's 5th House District
Republican Robert Hurt is leading first term incumbent Rep. Tom Perriello 46 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, according to a Roanoke College Poll with a 4.1 percent margin of error. The poll also shows that 13 percent of voters surveyed have not decided who they will vote for, though most of them tend to be moderates or conservatives. Hurt leads Perriello 51 percent to 34 percent among those who think the economy is the biggest issue in this election. President Obama's disapproval rating is 54 percent in this district. John McCain won this district in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote. Bush won it in 2004 with 56 percent. Perriello won his seat in 2008 by 727 votes.
The race between three-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi is statistically tied, according to the latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters. Murray narrowly leads Rossi 49 percent to 46 percent, with a 4 percentage point margin of error.
West Virginia Senate
The Senate race between Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese is statistically tied, though Raese has a slight edge. According to a Pulse Opinion Research poll sponsored by FOX News, Raese leads Manchin 48 percent to 45 percent, with a 3 percent margin of error.
Three-term Sen. Russ Feingold and Republican Ron Johnson are in a statistical tie, according to a St. Norbert College Survey Center poll released today. Johnson edges Feingold 49 percent to 47 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error. Obama's disapproval rating, according to the same poll, is 52 percent.
- See a slide show of 14 establishment candidates who lost to insurgents.
- Check out this month's best political cartoons.
- Check out our editorial cartoons on President Obama.