2010 Elections Poll Roundup: Dead Heat Tuesday

The Democratic Public Policy Poll survey shows Blunt with a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Carnahan, with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Blunt leads Carnahan 46 percent to 31 percent among Independents. The survey also shows that 36 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of Republicans are likely to vote in November. In August, the same poll found more Republicans likely to vote, 38 percent to 33 percent.

[See a slide show of 11 hot races in November.]

New York Senate

Two-term incumbent Sen. Chuck Schumer is leading Republican small businessman Jay Townsend 61 percent to 21 percent, according to a New York Times poll released today. In addition to Schumer's 40 point lead, the survey also found 47 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of the senator, and 62 percent say he is doing a good job, while 81 percent didn't know enough about Townsend to have an opinion.

In New York's other Senate race, the same poll shows first year incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leading Republican Joe DioGuardi 50 percent to 25 percent. The poll shows 26 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Gillibrand, but 37 percent don't know enough to have an opinion. DioGuardi has 8 percent favorability while 69 percent don't know enough about him. According to the same poll, President Obama has a 53 percent job approval rating.

New York's 19th House District

The race between two-term incumbent Rep. John Hall and Republican Nan Hayworth is in a statistical dead heat, according to a Monmouth University poll released today. Hall edges Hayworth 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters. The poll also found 66 percent of voters think the country is on the wrong track and 56 percent disapprove of the job President Obama is doing. The survey also found 46 percent of voters want the GOP in charge of Congress next year, while 41 percent want Democrats. Obama won this district in 2008 with 51 percent to 48 percent. However, George W. Bush won it in 2004 with 54 percent to 45 percent.

[See a photo gallery of Bush's legacy.]

Pennsylvania Senate

Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey are in a statistical dead heat in the fight for Sen. Arlen Specter's Senate seat, according to the Democratic Public Policy Polling. Sestak edges Toomey 46 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with a 3.7 percent margin of error. The poll found that 82 percent of Republicans plan on voting for Toomey, while 77 percent of Democrats plan on voting for Sestak. The candidates will go head to head in a debate tomorrow night in Philadelphia.

[See who is giving to Sestak.]

Virginia's 5th House District

Republican Robert Hurt is leading first term incumbent Rep. Tom Perriello 46 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, according to a Roanoke College Poll with a 4.1 percent margin of error. The poll also shows that 13 percent of voters surveyed have not decided who they will vote for, though most of them tend to be moderates or conservatives. Hurt leads Perriello 51 percent to 34 percent among those who think the economy is the biggest issue in this election. President Obama's disapproval rating is 54 percent in this district. John McCain won this district in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote. Bush won it in 2004 with 56 percent. Perriello won his seat in 2008 by 727 votes.

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