2010 Elections Poll Roundup: Dead Heat Tuesday

Good news for Democrats in New York and Maryland.


With two weeks to go until the 2010 elections, today's polls do not bode well for vulnerable House Democrats in districts where President Obama's approval ratings are low. Incumbent Democratic Reps. Allen Boyd of Florida and Tom Perriello of Virginia are trailing their GOP opponents, and New York Rep. John Hall is in a statistical dead heat with Republican Nan Hayworth. There is good news for Democrats in New York and Maryland, where incumbent Sens. Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand and Barbara Mikulski hold double digit leads. Meanwhile, the Senate races in Colorado, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin are virtually tied. Here is today's poll roundup:


A Gallup Poll shows that 48 percent of registered voters prefer a Republican candidate while 43 percent prefer a Democrat in the 2010 congressional elections.

Another Gallup Poll shows that former President Bill Clinton makes a more positive impact on voters than President Obama. Among Democrats, 53 percent said they are more likely to vote for the candidate Clinton campaigns for compared to 48 percent for Obama. Among Independents, 21 percent are for the Clinton candidates compared to 12 percent for the Obama candidates.

[See a slide show of 5 Reasons Obama is the Same as Bush and Clinton.]

California Senate

Three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is edging Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 48 percent to 44 percent, with a 3 percent margin of error, according to a Pulse Opinion Research poll sponsored by FOX News. Despite Boxer's 4 point lead in this poll, 50 percent don't think she is doing a good job as senator and 52 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, though 51 percent said the same of Fiorina. The same poll shows Democrat Jerry Brown leading Republican and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 48 percent to 43 percent in the state's gubernatorial race.

[See who is donating to Boxer.]

Colorado Senate

Republican Ken Buck and Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet are in a statistical tie, according to a Pulse Opinion Research poll sponsored by FOX News. Buck edges Bennet 46 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, with a 3 percent margin of error.

[See who is giving to Bennet.]

Florida's 2nd House District

Republican Steve Southerland opened up a 12 point lead over seven-term Democratic Rep. Allen Boyd, 50 percent to 38 percent, according to a Sunshine State News poll released today. The poll shows Boyd with a 33 percent favorability rating compared to Southerland's 45 percent. According to the same survey, President Obama's disapproval rating is 59 percent in this district, which covers the Tallahassee area. Boyd won at least 62 percent of the vote each time he ran for reelection.

[See who is donating to Boyd.]

Kentucky Senate

Republican Rand Paul is leading Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway 47 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, according to a Rasmussen Poll released today. Less than a month ago, the same poll showed Paul with an 11 point lead. The two are fighting for retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning's seat.

[Check out our editorial cartoons on the 2010 campaigns.]

Maryland Senate

Four-term incumbent Sen. Barbara Mikulski is leading Republican Maryland physician Eric Wargotz 55 percent to 38 percent, according to a Maryland-based Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies poll released today. The poll also found that in the state's 2010 primaries, Democratic likely turnout was down 27 percent from 2006, but the GOP turnout was up 23 percent.

[See who is donating to Mikulski.]

Missouri Senate

In the race for retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond's seat, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt is leading Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, according to two polls. Blunt leads Carnahan 49 percent to 43 percent with a 3 percent margin of error in a Pulse Opinion Research poll sponsored by FOX News. The same poll shows Obama with a 54 percent disapproval rating.

The Democratic Public Policy Poll survey shows Blunt with a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Carnahan, with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Blunt leads Carnahan 46 percent to 31 percent among Independents. The survey also shows that 36 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of Republicans are likely to vote in November. In August, the same poll found more Republicans likely to vote, 38 percent to 33 percent.