Democrats Start to Show Signs of Life Ahead of 2010 Election

With less than three weeks until an Election Day widely expected to be a GOP landslide, there are some signs that Democrats are starting to show life. While signals still point to Democratic losses, the party may not face the anticipated tidal wave.

Historically, a first-term president's party loses seats in the midterm elections. Also, this year, Democrats simply have more seats at stake and a flat economy hampering them. Polls have shown a persistent enthusiasm gap between the parties, prompting some Democratic leaders to scold their base voters. President Obama, for example, warned against Democrats "sulking." But there are indications, experts say, that his party may be stirring.

Earlier this month, tens of thousands gathered at Washington, D.C.'s Lincoln Memorial for a rally hosted by labor unions and other left-leaning groups. And last week, the Democratic National Committee announced that it raised a record $16 million in September, 80 percent of which came in small donations. Democratic strategists point to the rally and the fundraising blitz as proof that excitement is building among their party base.

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"We are seeing more inclination for Democrats to vote," said David Plouffe, who managed Obama's presidential campaign. "Trajectory is important and matters in politics," he added.

Surveys show that while voters are unhappy with Democrats, even fewer approve of the GOP. In a recent National Journal/Pew Research Center poll, 24 percent of Americans approved of the job Republican leaders have been doing, while 30 percent approved of Democratic leaders' performance. As a result, Democrats have encouraged voters to view their vote as a choice between the two sets of leaders rather than as a referendum on the party now in charge. "At the end of the day, people are mad, and they want to make changes, but they also want good people. And an incumbent congressperson who has done their work has a great advantage," says former DNC chairman Howard Dean. "It's not going to be a Republican wave."

Indeed, Democratic leaders, like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, appear to be equally confident about their party's positioning for House control next year. "I would rather be where we are than [where] they are," Pelosi said last Monday.

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But such pronouncements contain a mixture of hope and bravado. Republicans still remain ahead in the generic polls: The latest RealClearPolitics national polling average has the GOP ahead of Democrats, 48.1 to 41.3 percent. And although the Democratic party committees retain an edge over their GOP counterparts in funds raised, independent conservative interest groups have reportedly outspent liberal groups 8 to 1. "To think that the wind still isn't in our favor is a big mistake," says a top Republican aide. "That said, anything can happen, and there's a lot of work left to be done on the ground."

With time short, Democrats can only hope that the recent signs indeed point to a last-minute surge from a base that has not yet checked in and that the volatility of this year's midterms plays in their favor.

With Caitlin Huey-Burns

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