Packed Agenda Could Stall Immigration Reform

In his first major speech on immigration reform since taking office, President Obama called for a "practical, common sense approach" to dealing with one of the highest-voltage third rails in American politics. While thin on specifics, he outlined a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the United States that would include paying a fine, waiting in line behind legal immigrants, and learning to speak English. "The politics of who is and who is not allowed to enter the country, and on what terms, has always been contentious," Obama said at American University's School of International Service.

Using the term "contentious" appears to understate just how polarizing the issue of illegal immigration has become. The state of Arizona this spring passed one of the strictest ordinances in the country, criminalizing those living in the state without proper papers and allowing local police to ask about the immigration status of those detained for even minor crimes. Yesterday, the Justice Department sued to stop the law from taking effect. The law has sparked demonstrations and several boycotts of the state from critics who contend that the law will lead to racial profiling. Its supporters argue it was the border state's only recourse in the face of federal inaction. Obama called Arizona's foray into what has traditionally been the purview of federal law enforcement "ill-conceived."

But passage of the Arizona law is only a symptom of the larger national anxiety over the estimated 11 million people living illegally in the country. The stagnant economy and high unemployment, ongoing violence along the border connected with the drug trade, and a surge in domestic right-wing political activism have all helped push immigration forcefully back into the national spotlight. Recent national polling suggests that the public favors some form of comprehensive reform, while disapproving of the government's current efforts. Polls also show that a large majority of respondents, 60 percent, consider illegal immigration a "very serious problem" and that a similarly large majority, 58 percent, support the Arizona law.

Since comprehensive reform was first made a national priority by the Bush administration in 2006, the federal government has conducted more raids on employers hiring illegal workers and expanded border security efforts. Most likely in anticipation of Republican counter-arguments, Obama pointed out in his speech that the current force along the southern U.S. border is the largest ever. Securing the border has been a persistent precondition for support for comprehensive immigration reform from many Republicans and an increasing number of Democrats.

Inside the beltway, however, the political reality for the Democrats is clear: They need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome Republican filibustering tactics, which the GOP has either threatened or deployed for nearly every piece of major legislation that the Senate has considered since Obama took office. "Reform that brings accountability to our immigration system cannot pass without Republican votes," Obama said. "That is the political and mathematical reality." An obstructed Senate and a legislative calendar already booked solid with a slew of big-name legislation on banking and energy portends that immigration reform, like millions of prospective immigrants, may have to wait in a very long line.

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