Poll: Democrats Losing Support of Blue-Collar Voters

Nearly 50 percent of likely voters may be ready to cast a protest vote against the Democrats on the economy, and that number could exceed 70 percent among white blue-collar men, according to a new survey by Democracy Corps, a Democratic-oriented opinion research group affiliated with prominent party strategists including pollster Stan Greenberg, who advised President Bill Clinton. The survey also finds that progressives are losing the support of many blue-collar and noncollege voters as national Democrats appear to be more interested in the economic success of "elites" rather than everyday people. The analysis, based on polling and focus groups conducted in January and late February, finds a widening gap "between the hopes of the new progressive base voters who created a progressive majority in the country in the last four years—African-Americans and Latinos, young voters and unmarried women—and their own experiences in this economic crisis—loss of employment, wages, and healthcare, and cutbacks in state services." The danger for the Democrats in this fall's elections is that these people will become "drop-off voters" who cast ballots in 2008 but don't vote in 2010. "Democrats and progressive groups will have to craft an effective narrative as the economy unfolds and these gaps potentially widen," according to Democracy Corps. Job losses had their greatest impact on those earning less than $30,000, noncollege and nonunion voters, and those in the industrial Midwest and large metropolitan areas. Reduced wages and hours had the greatest impact on women under 50, younger college graduates, and those earning more than $75,000. Overall, the Democrats have lost their 16-point advantage over Republicans from mid-2009 on who would do a better job on the economy. "Concern with deficits and spending, with whether Democrats know how to create jobs in the real economy, and the efficacy of the stimulus clearly erode the progressive position," the Democracy Corps report says. "At the same time, a plurality believes Obama and the Democrats are more concerned about bailing out Wall Street than in creating jobs for Main Street. This is not a healthy combination."

In a separate analysis described by Democracy Corps as "a wake-up call for President Obama, his party, and progressives," the group sees "evidence of rising public concern" about the president's handling of national security issues. "Historical doubts about the Democratic Party on national security show signs of reviving," Democracy Corps says, "and many voters worry the president and his administration are not dealing forcefully enough with terrorist suspects. Additionally, the troubled economy is driving down public perceptions of America's strength and standing in the world." Democrats now trail Republicans 33 percent to 50 percent on which party likely voters think would do a better job on national security. This is an erosion for the Democrats from 41 percent to 43 percent last May. Fifty-seven percent disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, and only 42 percent approve, according to Democracy Corps.

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