The last time the United States saw an outbreak of swine flu, the "cure" was worse than the disease. Only one person died from swine flu in 1976, and 500 were infected. The government's response, a $135 million effort to vaccinate every American, was linked to 32 deaths and 500 cases of paralysis. Less than a quarter of the population was vaccinated before the program was halted, but the pandemic never materialized.
Partly because it was contained to Fort Dix, N.J., the 1976 outbreak seems different from the current strain so far. But public-health officials and politicians can still take key lessons from the episode.
First, experts say, officials should base any response on solid evidence—and, crucially, must reassess their policies as the situation continues. Two months after the first 1976 swine flu case in January, it was clear that the strain hadn't spread beyond Fort Dix. But President Ford, convinced by virologists of imminent danger and hoping to score points in an election year, still asked Congress for $135 million. The program pushed on through the summer despite no new cases.
Yet had the pandemic actually occurred, the government would have been in even more trouble. By the fall, delays caused by vaccine manufacturing and a battle over who should accept liability for side effects left the government unprepared to resume vaccinations. If swine flu had returned, says Arthur Silverstein, who was a staffer on the Senate health subcommittee in 1976, "the public-health people would have been pilloried for doing too little, too slowly."
Today, officials are still walking a tightrope between panic and preparation. "We want to protect people," says Franklin Top, one of the scientists at the Army's Walter Reed hospital who responded to the 1976 outbreak. "But we don't want to go overboard like we did last time."
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marytoons of CA 4:11PM May 07, 2009