Hot Docs: 'Bleak and Uncertain' Federal Budget Outlook as Deficit Climbs

Federal Budget Outlook Bleak: While President Obama has promised to cut the federal deficit in half in four years, an independent analysis calls the budget situation "bleak and uncertain." The Brookings Institution, in a paper entitled "The Economic Crisis and the Fiscal Crisis: 2009 and Beyond," says that in 2009, the deficit will be larger "as a share of the economy than at any time since World War II." Economic weakness and the $787 billion economic stimulus package are the major drivers of the gap, as well as "policy choices made in the past." Alarmingly, the paper also detects signs in international markets of a "visible uptick in the likelihood of default on U.S. treasury bonds, a notion was virtually unthinkable in the past." The paper concludes that "even if the recovery occurs as projected and the stimulus bill is allowed to expire, the country will face the highest debt/GDP ratio in 50 years and an increasingly unsustainable and urgent fiscal problem."

Comprehensive Plan to Stabilize Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Still Needed: Despite federal legislation, commission reports, and the urgings of various oversight agencies, the United States still lacks a comprehensive plan to destroy the terrorist threat and safe havens along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. A new Government Accountability Office report, "Securing, Stabilizing, and Developing Pakistan's Border Area With Afghanistan: Key Issues for Congressional Oversight," notes that although the United States has spent more than $12.3 billion to fight terrorism in Pakistan's tribal region, known as the Federally Administered Tribal Area, al Qaeda has regenerated. Congress should be inquiring about what progress has been made in developing a comprehensive plan, what obstacles have prevented its completion, whether agencies are devoting sufficient resources to the plan, how well the various agencies are coordinating their efforts, and what interagency agreements have been reached, the GAO says.

Ukraine Crisis Threatens U.S. Goals: Ukraine's political instability and tensions with Russia are of keen importance to the United States, which has spent billions to "facilitate the country's development as a stable, independent, democratic state with a robust market economy, integrated into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions," says a new report by the Council on Foreign Relations. Called "Averting Crisis in Ukraine," it warns that the country faces a year of challenges in 2009, including an assertive Russia, a presidential election, and possible parliamentary elections. The best case is "that Ukraine muddles through without serious crisis." However, if Russia moves aggressively to oppose Ukrainian efforts to join NATO, it might impose economic sanctions, cut off gas supplies, and even redeploy Army units "closer to the Ukrainian border." The Obama administration should re-energize high-level dialogue with Kiev, help to minimize internal strife in the country, help to reduce Ukraine's vulnerability to Russian pressure, support Ukraine's integration into NATO, and work with European allies on Ukrainian policy, the report concludes.