Election Special Hot Docs: Final Obama-McCain Polls, $400 Million in Soft Money

Key Pre-Election Poll Finds Obama Ahead: In the days before the election, Barack Obama had a "significant lead" over John McCain, one poll shows, with 49 percent of respondents favoring him over John McCain. When the remaining undecided voters are factored in, the Pew Research Center estimates that the Democrat will take 52 percent of the final total. The survey, one last look at likely U.S. voters in the waning days of the presidential campaign, predicts that record interest will lead to high turnout "across the board." Pew found that those who cast their ballots early are more likely to be Obama supporters, while those who are waiting until Election Day to vote are more evenly split between the two candidates.

Quinnipiac: Obama Leads in Key Swing States: Obama holds a strong lead over McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania going into Election Day, but Florida remains "too close to call," according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll. Obama leads by 7 percentage points in Ohio and 10 points in Pennsylvania. The survey looks at the largest swing states, pointing out that "no one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three." Most of the likely voters polled said that the economy is the most important issue for them this year. Respondents were also asked which of two potentially negative factors most affected their opinion of each candidate. People said their top concern about Obama was that he is "too liberal," which even beat out worries that he is "inexperienced." McCain's association with President Bush was named as more damaging to him than his choice of running mate.

Election Price Tag: $400 Million in Soft Money: Special interest advocacy groups whose contributions are not limited by campaign finance regulations have poured about $350 million into this year's election—and the total may top the $400 million mark before the results are final. The nonpartisan, nonprofit Campaign Finance Institute looked at where 527 and 501(c) groups are spending money to support candidates and issues in this year's presidential and congressional races. Many of these groups are closely tied to particular parties and candidates, and they use their contributions to fund advertising and on-the-ground campaigning. The Campaign Finance Institute notes that 527 contributions are down from their 2004 levels, perhaps because of Obama's already well-funded campaign and McCain's historic "opposition to independent soft money groups." Still, the study concludes that the "concentrated cache of unlimited donations raises many legal and policy questions."

U.S. Political Process "Needs Repair" but "Fundamentally Works": Although there are some serious problems with the American political process, "the system fundamentally works," concludes a report from the pro-democracy group Freedom House. A newly released chapter of the book Today's American: How Free? posits that the electoral system is "in many critical aspects and depending on one's perspective, either still a work in progress or in need of serious repair," pointing to cases of past voting irregularities, gerrymandering, and the influence of money. Nevertheless, the fact that "citizens who choose to mobilize can affect outcomes very directly" and oust ineffective leaders is evidence that the system works. Decentralized election procedures can make it difficult to guarantee equal representation of all Americans, but efforts to correct these problems should continue as voters "choose the country's leaders in increasingly fair processes."