Turnaround for Housing Stocks: Not Just Yet

Brokers gather around the post where they trade Fannie Mae prior to the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange.

Sales will have to recover, too. Pending home sales tracked by the National Association of Realtors fell more than expected in July. The measure, which leads existing home sales by about 45 days, is a hint that September sales will be down again.

Goldman does see very cheap deals right now for long-term investors. If you're willing to wait to take a profit, it rates D. R. Horton, MDC, and Toll as buys as housing market metrics hit all sorts of new lows—including, most notably, Goldman says, that "new home sales as a percentage of households are near 40-year lows."

Also, the balance sheets of home builders do look to be improving.

Capital positions at big names like Pulte Homes and Toll Brothers are improving. Toll's 18 percent debt to capital is at the lowest historic level, CEO Bob Toll said during the latest earnings announcement.

If they can stay in the black, there will be buying opportunities, too, as smaller players get squeezed by poorer credit options and falling asset values.

A study released today by Grant Thornton warns that more distress is coming in the next six months, with small and medium-sized builders facing the most risk—just the sort of thing that leads to big rounds of consolidation.

In the end, there will be winners among home builders when the dust settles, and they'll most likely be among the large, established names who got hurt the worst during the downturn. For now, wait for some clarity.