One Bank Stock Worth a Look

By Kirk Shinkle

Posted: August 11, 2008

"The fact is, the stock has way outperformed the bank sector, even while its earnings have been significantly lower than almost any of us expected," Crabtree says. He rates the stock a "hold."

Crabtree says the stock is currently being valued more like a growth name and less like a bank. He writes:

"It's being traded by people who manage growth portfolios and want some kind of financial stock in their portfolio," he says.

Eventually, it's the uncertain performance of all that lending that will keep some analysts from declaring the ambitious reworking of the bank a success. There, analysts are split.

"Expenses, margins, and credit costs really pushed back the time frame for any sort of break-even for the LaSalle hirings," said Daniel Arnold, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill. He has a "sell" rating on the stock.

Others predict a more rapid rebound.

JPMorgan Chase analyst Steven Alexopoulos sees a loss of 75 cents this year, bouncing back to a $1.30-a-share profit in 2009.

Part of the split is a lack of clarity on loan quality. With the absolute size of the bank's loan growth soaring, it's tough to track what sort of trouble might have existed in older loans or predict how all the new loans generated by the LaSalle folks will do in the future. Loans, after all, don't go bad right away unless a banker is doing an awful job.

Net charge-offs for bad loans were $6 million in the quarter or 0.42 percent of average loans, higher than the bank's historical levels but well below its rivals.

Richman says he's taken an "active" view of any credit problems in the existing loans and says any losses are "manageable" because of the higher quality of the bank's wealthier client base.

Which brings up another point: Is it a good time to buy bank stocks at all?

To be clear: It's not. Calling the bottom of the credit and housing crisis is piling up a big body count on Wall Street among those willing to bet the worst is over. Analysts expect this stock to be volatile as long as troubled credit markets and the weak economy keep the entire banking sector on the ropes. "The one concern I have is the economy is weak right now. Is now the time to be rapidly growing your loan portfolio?" asks Oppenheimer analyst Terry McEvoy.

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