The Ticker

Roubini: Credit Crisis Losses Could Hit $3.6 Trillion

By Kirk Shinkle

Posted: January 20, 2009

At a conference in Dubai, NYU's Nouriel Roubini said credit crisis losses could hit $3.6 trillion, up from $1 trillion worth of writedowns and losses estimated by Bloomberg to have already roiled the global financial system.

Bloomberg reports Roubini says that if losses are really as large as he fears “it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”  He also warns the disease is spreading to Europe, where the Royal Bank of Scotland Group faces an estimated $41 billion loss. Roubini also said the global slowdown will keep oil prices in the $30-$40 a barrel range this year, and he predicted commodities would fall another 15-20 percent from current levels.

Banking losses overseas are indeed becoming far more dangerous, as possible losses mount at institutions that invested heavily in U.S. mortgages, as well as other asset classes that have been badly damaged by the global economic downturn including the sovereign debt of emerging market nations.

 

Correction

Dubai has bought 3.5 bn of gold, no 35, as previous reader reports.

Ben of FL @ Jan 29, 2009 11:14:24 AM

The "fiinancial crisis"

Just about everyone seems to be missing the mark when it comes to analyzing what is taking us into the current depression.

Housing is not the source of our problem. Neither is the bank finance crisis. These are merely results of the core issue and problem. These are results of faux efforts to postpone the inevitable effects of our core problem.

Which is--the fact that the American worker is not making enough money. If one does not make enough money, it does not matter how much one wants to make his mortgage, credit card, and car payment: one cannot keep up--result "troubled bank assets".

If you look at the ratio between per capita income and GNP in 1970 verses today (adjusted for inflation), you realize that the average American per capita annual income is only $39k and would have to be $90k to have maintained the old ratio. You can blame feminism, all the myriad of work visas, free trade agreements we have entered into, the influx of wetbacks taking construction jobs, etc. But here is the real question--"Are we really willing to make the changes needed to reverse these trends???"

I don't think so.

michael lavery of CA @ Jan 22, 2009 11:00:05 AM

finacial system leverage

the financial system's levergage reached the point of infinity 17 months ago

john q public of NV @ Jan 21, 2009 19:32:55 PM

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The Ticker

The Ticker

Kirk Shinkle is a senior editor at U.S. News. He writes daily about ups and downs in equity markets, sectors and stocks. Formerly, he covered business and economics on both coasts for Investor's Business Daily.

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