The Inside Job

Median Unemployment Falls in July: Positive Sign?

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Posted: August 12, 2009

As the average period of unemployment continued to increase in July, the median decreased for the first time in months, Labor Department data shows.

Average duration of unemployment, in weeks:

March: 20.1
April: 21.4
May: 22.5
June: 24.5
July: 25.1

Median duration of unemployment, in weeks:

March: 11.2
April: 12.5
May: 14.9
June: 17.9
July: 15.7

This graph from the St. Louis Fed shows median duration tends to really trend lower only after a recovery has begun—the shaded areas indicate recessions—and in the last two recessions, it didn't drop until well into the recovery. Long-term unemployment is obviously one of the biggest problems in the labor market right now. The next few months will tell whether the July data really signaled something positive or not.

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net measurements

indicate limits january cannot

daysoncrop of LA @ Oct 26, 2009 12:50:25 PM

The most apparent things

about the graph above are that the current median duration of unemployment is unprecedented since 1965, AND that these medians were already running somewhat higher than the historical norm for several years before this latest recesion is said to have even begun.
It's hard to look at this and believe that the Reagan-to-Bush top end tax cuts delivered the job creation that was advertised for them. But you sure got the national debt.

Muser of NM @ Aug 12, 2009 15:43:47 PM

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