The Inside Job

Report: Layoffs Unlikely at Many Major Companies

By Liz Wolgemuth

Posted: September 25, 2008

Some good news: After years of leaning, layoffs, downsizing, and right-sizing, many of the country's largest companies have cut enough.

Workforce Management reports:

Based on a survey of industry sector analysts at UBS, more than half of large companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index are not likely to reduce staff.

Companies in the energy, materials, nuclear utilities, engineering and construction sectors are even understaffed—and have aging workforces to boot. Thus, those businesses may need to hire people, UBS strategists including Thomas Doerflinger and David Bianco wrote Wednesday, September 24.

Ah, so it's somewhere between "next Thursday" and "this quarter". I suppose that's fair: no one really knows when they'll have to cut staff until they have to cut staff, unless they're already thinking about it. The answer to, "Do you think you'll have to cut staff in six to twelve months," will probably always be, "That depends upon what happens in six to twelve months," unless something's already brewing.

On the other hand, that highlights the advice you've recently been focusing on, about keeping one's résumé and contacts current, and being ready to move when something happens.

Thanks for checking into it.

Barry Leiba of NY @ Sep 25, 2008 18:04:11 PM

RE: Barry Leiba

OK.

To your second point:

I asked UBS for a copy of the report. The analysts surveyed were not referred to a timeline. It was a question of right now:

"Do you believe the companies in your industry:

A. Are overstaffed.

B. Have the right headcount.

C. Are understaffed--would hire more people if they could find qualified candidates?"

And the findings "suggest big layoffs are not IMMINENT at most large companies." The authors note, however, that S&P firms employ about 13 percent of U.S. workers, while 55 percent of workers are employed at establishments with fewer than 100 workers. Smaller companies rely more on bank financing, so are more vulnerable in the tightened credit climate.

Liz Wolgemuth of @ Sep 25, 2008 16:11:16 PM

"Leaning"? The context tells me that this is a meaning of "leaning" with which I'm unfamiliar, something other than a characteristic of a tower in Pisa.

Hm....

Anyway, Workforce Management doesn't give a time period there: they're not likely to reduce staff... when? Through the end of 2009? This quarter? At least until next Thursday? Without telling that, the report isn't very meaningful.

Barry Leiba of NY @ Sep 25, 2008 14:42:18 PM

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The Inside Job

The Inside Job

You're taking a break from your job-hunting and job-hopping ways and have decided to stay put in your current position. Liz Wolgemuth’s careers blog will show you how to make the very best of your job, each day.

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