I strongly suspect the other shoe has not dropped, yet. There are still way too many half-million dollar homes on the market located in working class neighborhoods, especially in California and the Southwest. That equates to needing a $300K income to live within one's means and still be able to save enough to retire in the same house. The formula just can't support itself. Come March of 2010, I suspect there will be another strong wave of foreclosures, perhaps just as severe as the wave we experienced in early 2009. The slight turn in housing sales we are seeing now is not the bottom, it's supposed to be the Fall seasonal spike that happens every year when corporate relos move families before the school year begins. So ... let's hang on, the ride isn't over yet.
Rainman
of CA
@
Aug 29, 2009 17:32:20 PM
Best Case Scenario
I see this analysis as a best case scenario and little reason to believe that the best case will actual materialize. Prices may flatten for awhile and then begin a further descent in late 2009 or in 2010, especially in markets which have not yet seen appreciable declines and which have high rates of unemployment.
Greg
of AL
@
Aug 04, 2009 20:53:46 PM
Mortgage rates
We are at the beginning of a long, deep economic depression. Real estate and stock prices still have a long way to fall. The government won't be able to afford any more bailouts. The Fed (hopefully) knows better than to try to inflate away the debt. Result: much lower mortgage rates for the forseeable future, maybe into the 3% to 3.5% range.
darko714
of NY
@
Jun 24, 2009 09:38:32 AM
Jim Cramer Is Shameful
The real unemployment rate has surged to 16.4%.
Credit card defaults just set a record in May.
According to the MBA a record 12.07% of all mortgages are 30 days late.
And Cramer wants us to believe that we are not going to see a new sea of foreclosures drive down home values?
Cramer is an academic when it comes to the housing market.
Home prices still have another 15-25% to fall over the next 2-3 years based on the ongoing supply and demand imbalance.
Mark MacKenzie
of AZ
@
Jun 18, 2009 19:09:41 PM
Ghost inventory!!!
I didn't see any mention of the staggering ghost inventory of foreclosed homes, nor the coming wave of Alt-A loans defaulting!!!!!
As a consequence I'll take this so called analysis with a grain of salt!!!!
LA- Architect
of CA
@
Jun 18, 2009 00:01:20 AM
Jim Cramer
of CNBC's "Mad Money" program, called the bottom of the housing market YESTERDAY as having already occurred RIGHT NOW. Not that values will go back up, of course, just that on average, Cramer believes they have stopped going down.
As for the Fed raising target interest rates by one-fourth point in the third quarter of 2010, that's too little too late.
We are in the mess we're in BECAUSE rates were held too low too long. Let's hope they do not do the same dumb thing again.
GqtOAFqaGq of SD @ Nov 19, 2009 01:21:05 AM
GqtOAFqaGq of SD @ Nov 19, 2009 01:21:01 AM
Rainman of CA @ Aug 29, 2009 17:32:20 PM
Greg of AL @ Aug 04, 2009 20:53:46 PM
darko714 of NY @ Jun 24, 2009 09:38:32 AM
Mark MacKenzie of AZ @ Jun 18, 2009 19:09:41 PM
LA- Architect of CA @ Jun 18, 2009 00:01:20 AM
Muser of NM @ Jun 17, 2009 13:05:32 PM
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