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Goldman Sachs Sees 10% Unemployment in 2010

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Posted: March 3, 2009

The economics team at Goldman Sachs has revised its economic outlook lower, again:

We have marked down our forecast for US economic activity in the first half of 2009; we now expect real GDP to fall at annual rates of 7% this quarter and 3% next quarter (versus declines of 4½% and 1% previously)…

As a result of the additional near-term weakness, we have boosted our expected path of the unemployment rate, to 9½% by year-end 2009 and 10% by year-end 2010; both figures are ½ point above the previous forecast.

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Its already 12.5 % here.

What a BOLD prediction! 10%? We'll be there before May at this rate. There is already 12.5% in my neck of the woods. And remember, they futzed with the basis for the percentage a few years back, so the "REAL" unemployment is 2 to 3% higher than stated.

Mike In Unemployed Land of CA @ Mar 11, 2009 01:44:00 AM

Point about $200 oil is poignant

I honestly think things are not going to be as bad as predicted. Right now, while there are many things negatively affecting the economy, some of it is simply the same "irrational exuberance" now in reverse. Once we get out of that, the stock market will go back up and everything else will fall into place.

Harry of NY @ Mar 08, 2009 22:34:13 PM