Next Housing Market to Crash? Seattle

We have a thing here I call the "Holland Effect"

We don't have enough land here like in Holland. Most of King county is locked up in watershed and nationa forest forever. Only a small strip if land between the mountains and the sound is available for development. the makes the lots that do exist and the homes on them rare and valuable in a special way like in holland.

this is why we are behind the rest of the country in our correction. But when the local job market goes south and especially when boeing leaves town, this palce will fold up like a card table. It rains here 8 months of the year and most people realize sooner or later that it actually sucks to live in Seattle

Greg Fillman of WA @ Nov 11, 2008 13:57:07 PM

Wheres the data? reply

The experts are the ones that got the general public into this situation. Why would I listen to a real estate broker in the middle of a housing crash? After all real estate agents sell houses, a housing crash means you lose money. You would have no reason to pay attention to the facts as they wouldn't suit you. Facts are prices in Seattle are falling and will continue to. The Northwest is about a year behind the rest of the country as far as the Case Shiller index is concerned it has been that way for years. If you want to see what the future for Seattle looks like look at the chart.

http://bp2.blogger.com/_1J3jBnbSjmU/SJDRf1ydPBI/AAAAAAAAAJE/0JqaC4b9ksI/s1600-h/CSHomePrice_20_May08.jpg

And follow the Trends of the past 7 years of data.

Trends won't be broken by wishful thinking.

Housing watcher of OR @ Sep 13, 2008 16:54:42 PM

Seattle to other city comparison

Well,...how does Seattle home prices compare to other comprehible cities? Is a 2 bedroom apartment cheaper now in San Francisco, Chicago, NYC? I mean it's rough when you compare Seattle to Phoenix or Las Vegas,....

Personally,...I hope the prices drop,...but I don't think it'll drop more than 10% in King County,...maybe on higher end homes,....but not the bottom of the barrel homes that most of this forum seem to want to get into.

gluv of @ Jul 16, 2008 20:37:29 PM

Evil Realtors

It is too bad that ALL Realtors are looked at in such a poor light by some people. I am an agent and I dont prey on people who cannot afford to buy a house or push people into homes they cannot afford. Its simply not good long term business. I need to sell to survive this is true but I work really hard for my money. Also, I dont make 6% . I split 6% with the other agent involved in the deal and some of us then give part of that 3% to our brokers leaving us with even less. It can take me months to earn that 3% . Some agents make a lot of money but the majority make average incomes. I have only closed 2 deals so far this year and have earned less then when I used to wait tables.

Right now it is hard to find buyers that can get a loan , this is making times very hard for agents as our incomes have dropped 30% or more this year. plus its always feast or famine in real estate. I hope that prices drop so my friends and family can afford to buy homes in Seattle and I think they will to a degree. If the national economy continues to fall then Seattle will eventually feel the effects.

The main problem right now is that even if someone wants to buy the lenders are making it very hard. One escrow agent told me that 80% of her clients were waiting on their loans to go through so they could close on their new home. They were all past the original close date and many of them will not go through at all.

A few bad apples .... I will always be the ethical person that I was before I become a realtor and its too bad that some really unethical people have given us all a bad name.

BK of WA @ Jul 16, 2008 17:09:51 PM

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Consider these facts:

1) 95% of all the republican and democratic presidential candidates are members of the pro-war and pro-North American Union (NAU) Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a private thinktank aligned with the central banker's dream for a world government under the United Nations (a mouthpiece for private wealth). What's even more interesting is that the majority of Americans aren't aware of this, or if they are aware, they get stupid and sweep this under the rug as a bunch of garbage.

2) The fact that the election has already been stolen by private interests that desire war with Iran means much greater inflation of the US dollar and a worsening economy as a greater division of wealth continues.

3) Inflation of our currency is the biggest problem facing us. Markets can bounce, housing prices can go up, but it's all completely meaningless in the face of runaway, long-term inflation of our currency. Nobody gets to retire when their home equity is worthless due to extreme inflation.

4) The average baby boomer will retire with $180K plus home equity. That's not enough to pay for medical costs in retirement. Guess who will pay the rest? U.S. TAX PAYERS. The bill will be upwards of $60 trillion for social security and Medicare, alone. This will drive the US dollar straight into the ground as the government "prints" money to pay that debt.

5) Rising fuel prices also mean rising food costs. Most Americans are already in deep debt. Cut off their credit and you kill them as consumers, and you kill the US economy.

6) Goodbye housing market and also your retirement. The US economy has NOTHING to stand on. It does not exist in a vacuum.

Tim McGuire of WA @ Jun 24, 2008 14:52:58 PM

Market Selection

The homes I have seen within the Seattle core that have been sitting on the market are the homes which are near busy streets, have funky floor plans, or not updated. Those homes which are in desirable neighborhoods with decent floorplans and no obvious negatives are still selling well.

I think our market downturn will result in a 5% to 15% downward adjustment in prices within the Seattle city limits, bringing it in line with past average growth. I don't see the sky falling, and if I had to live in my Million dollar condo a few more years before selling, I'd be comfortable with that. I don't have any problem getting loans even in today's climate, and I suspect most normal home buyers wouldn't either....

anon of WA @ Jun 22, 2008 12:16:52 PM

If Seattle is doing so well why the don't they put some money into the roads. Some of the worst in the northwest! The bridges? The ferries? Seattle is a beautiful setting with a lot of entertaining things to do. But it's looking trashy. For everyone who thinks it's the best, look around, take some pride.

Seattle may handle the downfall better than some cities with the housing, it's yet to be seen, from all of the reading I have done on the world economy and the ugly surprises yet to come, I will be surprised if it doesn't hit Seattle just like everywhere else. We are not in typical down times. This is far worse than the 70's or the 80's or the 90's. Read some of the articles by the richest, smartes investors, they aren't so positive about the future of the economy. If they are right, than how is that this one city will not have it's down turn as well. Especially when so many of it's population are already suffering from financial woes?

Joe of WA @ Jun 15, 2008 18:52:35 PM

Liquidity

Yet despite all this, we still have the whole credit fiasco going on. Regardless of "basic supply & demand", we've seen banks begin to tighten standards for mortgages... just like they should have years ago (and thus avoiding this subprime mess).

Now we're beginning to see some problems moving into other areas of lending, including cars, credit cards, student loans, home equity and commercial real estate. Any financial player or product that has been involved with securitization will be hit hard as this credit panic deepens. With tightening up in those fields, we're going to have even less people who can even qualify for a home loan... especially since people's budgets and credit are taking huge hits in light of increasing food, energy and housing costs. And that reduction of creditworthy customers reduces the pool of "eligible" buyers further still, increasing the supply relative to the actual number of folks who can buy.

And as I mentioned above, the energy bubble going on now. Gas is nearly $4.40/gal and oil hit $140/barrel last week. People can't afford the gas to commute from North Bend to Seattle as it is, it'll be far worse as it passes the $5 mark. And in light of the issues starting to sprout in other loans, it is getting harder to buy a new, more efficient car.

What we'll ultimately see is something like a 20% drop in the major urban centers (Sea, Tac, Bel, Eve) but bigger drops the farther you go out. If fuel prices stay above$4.50 for good, we'll see the burbs collapse and a mass exodus back to the urban cores. And thus prices will rebound... we're witnessing the opposite of suburbanization. It won't happen overnight, but it is happening.

Anyone who says they've seen it all before is not noticing that this current financial panic is not like anything anyone has seen before.

Thorax O'Tool of WA @ Jun 10, 2008 00:22:29 AM