New Money

Strategist: We've Hit the Worst of the Recession

By Katy Marquardt

Posted: March 9, 2009

Pessimism is pretty rampant in the market today, as this recession is on track to be the longest in the post-war era.

For glass-half-empty folks, Charles Schwab just reported these survey results from a poll of 1,200 investment advisers (via The Wallet):

When asked to predict how long they thought the current recession would last, 41% said it would wrap up in December of this year and 41% said December 2010. When it came to their clients’ portfolio’s recuperating, 35% said that their clients until December 2014 to fully recover. 32% thought client recovery would come in December 2011, 18% by December 2010.

Now, here's some market commentary from a glass-half-full strategist--BlackRock's Bob Doll, global CIO of equities:

In our opinion, we are in the midst of the worst of the recession. We expect a sharp contraction in first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) as demand remains weak and businesses work through built-up inventories. Looking ahead, we would expect the rate of economic decline to lessen in the second quarter, GDP to flatten out in the second half of 2009 and growth to return to positive (although subpar) levels in 2010.

Normal people...

With Mr. Dolls assets he may be able to realize a postive experience before the rest of us. After all their site says, 7 trillion is under their umbrella globally in some manner.

Mr. Schwabs analysis is one of a more general thought process. The question I would ponder, is when will either of these outlooks touch Mr. and Mrs. Normal american in a significant way. Once we do come back at the core levels, how long will it take before, for example, rent will be a predictable part of our affordability. And a job can be something we can stay in for 2 or 3 years at a time again...

tom in San diego of CA @ Mar 09, 2009 19:52:37 PM

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New Money

Katy Marquardt, a senior editor at U.S.News & World Report, takes a contemporary look at happenings in the financial world and aims to help young investors get going with their portfolios--or just sound cool at cocktail parties. Have a question? E-mail Katy at newmoney@usnews.com

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