New Money

Cheers: Wine and Liquor Keep Flowing Despite Sour Economy

By Katy Marquardt

Posted: October 2, 2008

Wine and spirit maker Constellation Brands may have posted a loss in its fiscal second-quarter profits, but the company also reported swift sales of vodka and premium wines.

Constellation, which holds the crown of world's largest wine producer, said net sales rose 7 percent in the quarter to $1.24 billion, mainly on the strength of its wine brands (including Wild Horse and Woodbridge by Robert Mondavi) and spirits (big gains were had by brands including Svedka Vodka and 99 Schnapps).

Restructuring charges—relating largely to the sale of some of the company's Australian assets—brought profits down, but without the charges, earnings would have been $99 million, or 45 cents a share, up from year-ago profits of $77 million, or 35 cents. The company also beat Wall Street's estimates by a penny a share. It pegs full-year earnings at 83 cents to 91 cents per share (or $1.68 to $1.76 adjusted).

Constellation's shares (symbol STZ), which closed at $22 yesterday, have risen more than 18 percent since April. At 1:30 p.m. today, the stock was down more than 5 percent, trading at $20.34.

Recently, I talked with Charles Norton of the Vice Fund about how so-called sin stocks tend to stay afloat in tough economic times. He also told me that distillers have been less affected by cost pressures than the beer industry. He likes Diageo, which has a large international distribution network and is gaining market share in a handful of spirits categories. "It's the 800-pound gorilla in categories like vodka and tequila that are growing even faster than the overall spirits market," he said. Diageo's stock, at $70, has been on the decline this year, but it has held fairly steady since July.

Liquor sales are up, but profit is down!

The point this article misses is that across the board, premium spirits are selling at lower prices than a year ago. This is especially true in the overcrowded vodka segment: Grey Goose, Chopin, Belvedere, Ketel One, etc -- all are offering deals to distributors and retailers in an effort to maintain market share by presenting more attractive prices to consumers. As a consequence, profit margins have declined significantly.

We see this trend throughout the entire spirits industry, and across all retailer segments, from the luxury retailers to the cost-cutters.

Yes, the public is looking for an escape from the financial worries and bad news every day, but they are not as free-spending, and they're looking for bargains. ...and they are not as likely to experiment with new high-priced brands -- they will stick with the tried and true, with opportunistic ventures to the lower priced brands to save a little cash.

The impact of all this will be seen in next quarter's operating results, and we will see the multiple-of-earnings valuation fall; at the same time the dominant brands will acquire struggling emerging brands at bargain prices.

John Macaluso of CA @ Nov 30, 2008 12:10:56 PM

Feeling no pain?

Alcohol tends to sort of deaden the pain of the consequences of not being able to pay the bills for the people that do not live on Wall or Main street.

HillbillyBill of TN @ Oct 03, 2008 07:52:29 AM

This is why John McCain thinks the economy is still strong. There has been no slowdown of sales at Cindy's beer distributorship, Hensley and Company of Phoenix. John thinks everything looks fine.

of @ Oct 02, 2008 16:10:31 PM

Add Your Thoughts
About You

advertisement

New Money

Katy Marquardt, a senior editor at U.S.News & World Report, takes a contemporary look at happenings in the financial world and aims to help young investors get going with their portfolios--or just sound cool at cocktail parties. Have a question? E-mail Katy at newmoney@usnews.com

advertisement

Subscribe

U.S. News Digital Weekly

A weekly insider's guide to politics and policy — in a multimedia, digital format. 52 issues for $19.95!

U.S. News & World Report

6 months of U.S. News & World Report's print edition for only $15. Save up to 67% off the cover price!