Capital Commerce

As Mortgage Rates Spike, How Do We Prevent Future Housing Disasters?

By Matthew Bandyk

Posted: June 15, 2009

Anna J Schwart's article on the origins of the financial crisis also has a brief section on the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the market for mortgage-backed securities. Most commentators seem to have downplayed Fannie and Freddie's influence on the housing bubble, but not Schwartz.

Starting under the Clinton administration and continuing through Bush's term, the HUD kept boosting the minimum amount of mortgages purchased by Fannie and Freddie that were for low-income borrowers. Schwartz continues:

Between 2000 and 2005 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac met those goals every year, and funded hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of loans, many of them sub-prime and adjustable-rate loans made to borrowers who bought houses with less than 10 per cent deposits. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also purchased hundreds of billions of sub-prime securities for their own portfolios to make money and help satisfy HUD affordable-housing goals.

She concludes that Fannie and Freddie provided a convenient way for Congress to promote home ownership without having to go through the budget. Her implication is that government-sponsored enterprises are not an appropriate means to promote political goals.

If interest rates

had not been held too low too long, we would not have had the current bubble and burst (crisis).

The next crisis will be avoided similarly (if it is) by insisting on realistic long term rates. Hint: It ain't five percent. Something more like eight percent is what is needed.

Muser of NM @ Jun 15, 2009 21:54:56 PM

How Do We Prevent Future Housing Disasters?

A lot of folks involved in mega lending decisions and policy may not have been around in the late 80s or perhaps they just didn't remember, or chose to forget the calamity and fall out from the S&L crisis and the establishment of the RTC to clean up the debris.

Today we have tools like the Case-Shiller index to gauge home values as they relate to other factors like affordability, employment the emergence of new non-prime loan programs and such.

The bottom line is that real estate prices are cyclical and with that so are losses. We should have enough historical data from the last 20 years to be able to predict increasing levels of risk as real estate markets heat up.

If the market does not employ these types of risk analysis we can pretty much guaranty another housing disaster down the road which could be even worse than the one we are currently in.

Perry Austin of TX @ Jun 15, 2009 14:26:16 PM

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Capital Commerce

Capital Commerce

U.S. News business reporter Matthew Bandyk examines the issues, people, and debates that shape the nexus of political and economic life in the nation's capital.

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