Capital Commerce

Is America Really a Third-World Country?

By James Pethokoukis

Posted: April 3, 2009

In the WaPo, Simon Johnson and James Kwak make just that case:

In a normal advanced economy, creating hundreds of billions of dollars in new money would not foster runaway inflation. As long as the economy is underperforming -- for example, with high unemployment -- stimulating the economy will only cause that "slack" to be taken up, the theory goes. Only when unemployment is low again can workers demand higher wages, forcing companies to raise prices.

But is the United States really a normal advanced economy anymore? We seem to have taken on some features of so-called emerging markets, including a bloated (and contracting) financial sector, overly indebted consumers, and firms that are trying hard to save cash by investing less. In emerging markets there is no meaningful idea of "slack;" there can be high inflation even when the economy is contracting or when growth is considerably lower than in the recent past.

If the United States is indeed behaving more like an emerging market, inflation is far easier to manufacture. People quickly become dubious of the value of money and shift into goods and foreign currencies more readily. Large budget deficits also directly raise inflation expectations. This would help Bernanke avoid deflation, but there is a great danger that unstable inflation expectations will become self-fulfilling. We do not want to become more like Argentina in 2001-2002 or Russia in 1998, when currencies collapsed and inflation soared.

Me:  Easy to manufacture, tough to eliminate -- especially without causing a double-dip recession.

1st still

The people and the government are still living large in upper first world style, but the strain of being maxed out on debt and facing bankruptcy is showing. We are the consuming part of the G2, so we can only ship wealth from shopping malls to China, which now has most of the manufacturing capacity.

On the other hand, we still have enormous natural resources to draw on for wealth, but of course population increases have an immediate effect of lowering wealth as per capita natural resources, and the population is booming. Some strain is appearing in non-renewable natural resources. Peak water in the southwest, peak oil, and global war are a sign of incipient overpopulation. Nevertheless we should be able to raise some cash by selling natural resources. Obama might want to sell Seward's Folly back to Russia to raise some cash and rid himself of his most creditable future opponent, Gov. Sarah Palin.

Another bright spot in the economy is our military supremacy. We can invade other countries and steal their wealth and enslave their people.

Luther of IL @ Apr 03, 2009 14:48:29 PM

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Capital Commerce

Capital Commerce

U.S. News business reporter Matthew Bandyk examines the issues, people, and debates that shape the nexus of political and economic life in the nation's capital.

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