Capital Commerce

Budget Deficit: Biggest Since World War Two?

By James Pethokoukis

Posted: January 6, 2009

Shouldn't we, like, start caring about the budget deficit at some point. This, from Stan Collender:

Based on the information available so far, it appears as if the tax cuts and spending increases in the stimulus plan will be close to or exceed $800 billion by the time it is enacted. Some of that spending will occur over two years. Nevertheless, the package will be big by almost any standard. And this will be on top of the very large $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program that many gagged on while Congress held its nose and adopted it last year.

When added to the TARP and everything else that has already been approved or which, like the American International Group bailout, was done by executive fiat, the fiscal 2009 deficit will very likely exceed $1 trillion. Depending on how certain budget scoring disputes are settled, it could be several hundred billion dollars higher.

That means the deficit could be from 8 percent to 9 percent of gross domestic product, a level that hasn’t been reached since the government was borrowing to pay for World War II. Federal debt held by the public could increase by about $2 trillion in 2009, a 25 percent to 30 percent increase over the current level. Even with the much lower interest rates of the past few months, that will raise the government’s annual interest payment substantially.

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