No recession, yet. Strong trade numbers continue to boost the economy, folks. I am so going to win my bet with Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture:
This from Macroeconomic Advisers:
The trade balance through May was much stronger than expected. Soft production-side indicators, though, suggest less domestic spending given very strong net exports. Based on this information, we raised our tracking estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter by five-tenths to 3.5%.
This from JPMorgan:
The real trade balance improved considerably in May, and trade is now on track to contribute 1.5% to 2.0%-point to 2Q GDP growth, up from our previous estimate of 0.9%-point. That would lift our tracking estimate of 2Q GDP growth to at least 2.5% from 2.0%, and could put it over 3.0%.
Barry Ritholtz of NY @ Jul 16, 2008 07:30:21 AM
Max of WI @ Jul 11, 2008 15:11:48 PM