Capital Commerce

Betting Markets Race Toward Obama

By James Pethokoukis

Posted: February 7, 2008

Barack Obama

Barack Obama

In the stock market, they call it "capitulation." It's the moment when the bulls finally throw in the towel. Taking one look at the Intrade betting markets this morning, I certainly sense capitulation in the air when it comes to the Democratic presidential race.

The "Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008" contract is down to 41.5 while the "Barack Obama to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008" contract is up to 58. They have completely flipped. I think the Hillary bulls are beginning to throw in the towel.

Having closely watched these two contracts over the past year, I know just how stubborn this group has been. Total perma-bulls. And I don't think it was the Super Tuesday results alone that turned the tide. I think it was the report that Clinton is lending money to her campaign at the same time that a deluge of campaign dollars is flooding Obama's coffers.

The other side of the trade: Older female voters and Hispanic voters are so pro-Hillary that all of Obama's money and momentum won't shake them, and she'll win states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas—and the nomination.

There are bandwagons for each candidate

That's not the point. There are also people who consider how someone will run the country, not just how well they can attack someone else on the campaign trail. Obama isn't fighting back like Hillary wants him to, so it's a losing cause for her - she just looks weak trying to pick a fight every chance she gets. Who wants someone like that to inspire them?

Who else has asked us to really believe in ourselves to change a bad situation lately? Who else has made it his or her core message?

EJD of GA @ Feb 22, 2008 02:16:49 AM

I would never vote for a boy that has only 2 years as a junior senator. It is disturbing to think the majority of his votes are from voter who are voting the first time based on his race. That is sad because this would never be happening other wise. No I will never and I do mean never support someone who has not shown leadership skills to lead. Not to mention someone who brags of his involvement with drugs, so what does he say to parents and children and teens about drug use. I know "hey I did it you just need know how not to get caught". His family background is Muslim and that seems to have been buried by the press, his wife is sweet talking now but go back to the earlier interviews and that is what we will have representing the White House. How could this country be so insane to support an unproved Muslim candidate and what does this say to the generations to follow and the rest of the world. Next thing you know we will have the Middle East securing our borders. And there you have another opinion to be swept under the rug. Hilary Clinton receives my educated vote.

kat of IL @ Feb 08, 2008 15:37:45 PM

CLINTON PLAN

If you think that having health insurance through your job means you won't have to pay Hilary's mandatory health insurance premiums - think again! According to a September 18 Associated Press article, Clinton said in an interview with the AP: "... she could envision a day when 'you have to show proof to your employer that you're insured as a part of the job interview -- like when your kid goes to school and has to show proof of vaccination,' but said such details would be worked out through negotiations with Congress." Go Obama!

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20070918-0856-clinton-apinterview.html

J. Taylor of VT @ Feb 07, 2008 22:31:40 PM

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Capital Commerce

Capital Commerce

U.S. News business reporter Matthew Bandyk examines the issues, people, and debates that shape the nexus of political and economic life in the nation's capital.

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