Bad Economy Could Cause China Crackup

Dissolution of China

China could disintegrate just as the Soviet Union did. But then, so could the USA! Without lending from China the USA would be insolvent and could break up into several semi-autonomous regions (e.g. California) with a very weak central government in Wash. D.C.

Frank B. of OR @ Dec 02, 2008 20:49:55 PM

Joseph reilly

I am sure China's breakup is exactly what you wish for....The fact that you indicated that Xinjiang and Xizhang are "recent" acquisitions really does show where you stand as far as your knowledge, and opinion of China are. While China has a myriad of local and regional interests, how is that strange for a country that is the third largest in the world? How is this particular trait unique to China? The traditional preference for sons do have a warping effect on the demographic balance...but this can be solved with immigration..China has always been a land empire absorbing new people. As for young men who become criminals...do you know the per capita jail immate numbers are for China? How about the absolute number of Chinese immates? You should go look this up. You will be surprised.

Like I said before, China needs to seriously re-orient its economy toward domestic consumption, and break its link to the pirchasing of US treasury bonds. The American lifestyle is unsustainable; instead of predicting the demise of a relatively poor and still developing China, maybe people should try to fix what's wrong with the world' sole superpower?

Michael Lou of MA @ Dec 02, 2008 18:33:24 PM

Reply to "China is not going to break up" comment

the northwest five provinces consist of almost half of China, but only 6% of population. The overwhelming part of Chinese population are in the "middle land", the traditional Han Chinese territory. This is the core piece of "China"; the population of which are homogenous (ethnic Han), speak the same language, and share the same history. It is astonishing if you actually think about it; there is no other large country that has this type of homogenous population. And it is highly questionable if the rest of the 6% actually want to break out. There is no economic rational. And the other 94% would not allow it anyways. The same cannot be said of the old Soviet Union, Indonesia etc. This is the reason for my assertion that China is not about to break up.

Economy make China break up? China probably fared just as bad in the 97/98 Asian economic meltdown. Although no one denies that China faces significant challenges.

By the way, please refrain from any personal attacks. I would welcome any academic thoughts/feedbacks.

As for the shortage of women in China? I have a solution. Russia and the old Soviet satelite countries have a shortage of men. Chinese men and Russian bride ... there is a match. By the way, it is already happening in Northeast China.

Zhi Nan of MA @ Dec 02, 2008 16:08:04 PM

Jeez 'No Way" get your facts straight

The Opium wars were perpetrated by the BRITISH EMPIRE not by Americans.

The Chinese system of government; part authoritarian/part capitalist should be admired for how far its brought mainland China into the 20th and 21st century. They also have a quasai democratic voting system. The current Chinese government should be commended for coming to grips with the inevitability of freeing its people from the rigidity of marxist/maoist ideology. If they wrongly cling to the notion that the Communist regime should survive at all cost, then China can expect its people to rise up against it. Prosperity was the succor that kept hundreds of millions compliant. Without it, they (the people) have nothing to lose.

What this worldwide economic crisis has done is bury the de-coupling mantra about the world decoupling from the U.S. With

cars stockpiled by the tens of thousands on California docks, and the rapid deterioriation of economies across the globe, now is the time to reform the wicked tricksters on Wall Street, London, Brussels and Switzerland. Global standards and open books, accountability, and incarceration would put a new spin on one world governing.

We are in this together. Life boats for all except for the credit swap derivatives gang.

Barbara S. of TN @ Dec 02, 2008 14:53:26 PM

China's leader worries

In the history of China, the best leaders always worried: they always tried to improve the people's livelihood. When a Chinese leader stopped worrying and just want to enjoy life, that was when China got into trouble. That was true for the last 5000 years. Sounds like president Hu is a good leader.

Ben Gee @ Dec 02, 2008 10:23:18 AM

Should I say more?

Well, this is why the President Hu worrying...he or no one can really control

China easily. Chinese people will act following their own culture. It

is like some birds will always fly north fly south between seasons. No

one knows how they move. But, something as I said are assured. China will

be nice to you if you are nice to it.

One day when China govt. does not help to build a better country for China,

Chinese may tell them to go away but it is not the time. I am sure about

it. No party can rule forever in China. Some officials or people know

this fact in their traits so they are now trying to get more money to avoid

poverty when Chinese people use another party to rule them.

@ Dec 02, 2008 03:02:31 AM

Chinese separate?

Most people do not understand Chinese. Chinese acts unlike Westerners. They act in a way following their culture without knowing it. So, if you understand Chinese culture, you will know how they will move. Chinese will not break up into pieces if they are poor. It is just the opposite. They will break up after they get rich. Look at Taiping Rebellion, Chinese get crushed after they get rich. When they get poor, they are united together. So, Americans should make Chiense very rich or 10 times richer than Americans and china will break into 20 pieces easily. However, I do not know if it is a good thing to the west if they break as it will break into your lands probably. So, no matter what way you use, you can't stop the move from Chinese people. They just do whatever they want. They can go high and down themselves. They can let Qing Manchu minority to rule them. They can overthrow Manchu ethnic group when they want. The only thing I am sure is that Chinese is peaceful and nice to foreigners. They won't attack USA if USA does not attack China. That is all. It is safest thing to deal good with China as china is very very nice to foreigners. It is easy to deal with Chinese. U treat them well. U be treated same well or better in return.

@ Dec 02, 2008 02:53:53 AM

Modern China

Chinese people are better today than anytime in the history of China of 5000 years. People are better fed, clothed, housed and travelled. When disaster strike, China has the best rescue system anywhere in the world. Even if china's growth is reduced to 5%, China will double its output in less than 15 years. Unemployment? People are beginning to move back to the countryside and no country is in a better position or has more money to stimulate the rural economy than China. However, China has a very painful structual adjustment to make. Some export sectors are slowing down real fast,but other sectors are booming: China's October export grew by over 19% and China's trade with some countries grew by as much as 50%. If you are waiting for the Chinese economy to crack, please do not hold your breath.

Ben Gee @ Dec 01, 2008 23:06:07 PM