Bad Economy Could Cause China Crackup

China's demise

Of course I cannot personally speak for the migrants, or for anyone in fact but myself. But nor can anyone else speak for those who lost all their retirement 401's or the thousands of auto workers who will be laid off. The point is, no one is doing well at all. China will definitely have to adjust. This downturn will force China to concentrate more seriously toward developing its own domestic market. It is high time the Chinese stop financing the American's over-indulgent lifestyle and misguided wars. China needs to develop its own consumption, and allow its own people to start enjoy some of the benefits of a more comfortable life. China needs to wean itself from this over-reliance on foreign markets, and turn to its own people for sustainable growth.

Michael Lou of MA @ Dec 01, 2008 18:22:10 PM

to reply to Zhi Nan "China is not about to break up."

Clearly, you do not have any idea of what China actually is. Xinjiang is a recent acquisition, so is Tibet. Also, the idea that Beijing actually controls the country is pretty strange. Why do you think the country is governed by a politburo? It is because it is necessary to balance the desires of the various territorial and political interests. No one trusts anyone else. There are, indeed, powerful forces tending toward the breakup of China. There are two more that seldom get mentioned. China is short of women. Due to the traditional Chinese preference for sons, the abortion and abandonment and just plain murder

of girl babies has continued into modern China. This leaves a large number of young men with no hope of getting married. And, as everyone knows, it is young, single men who are the society's criminals. The other point which often gets overlooked is the huge overpopulation

of China. There are so many people in China that a huge number are free to wander around as migrant workers. There are also many people who have no real jobs. And, who are the people who are likely to cause trouble? Of course, those who do not have jobs to keep them busy.

So, I have been telling others for years that China would break up. The current crisis might well do the trick.

Joseph Reilly of NY @ Dec 01, 2008 17:19:15 PM

Chinese Girls & Economy

The great and fun thing about working and living in China is that an American guy who is a nobody in the US becomes a superstar/celebrity once he arrives in China. Yes, that's right, we get multiple drop-dead gorgeous, model-like girlfriends without even trying. In fact, they come to us.

With China economy going down the tube, this can only mean an ever easier time to find these girls, as university students graduating cannot find jobs, and in general the Chinese girls will have to drop their levels of expectations, not that they had high expectations in the first place as demonstrated when you see a 50 year old white man walking around arm-in-arm with his 24 year old tall, slender Chinese girlfriend. Who would want to complain about the downfall of the Chinese economy?

CaliforniaGuy of CA @ Dec 01, 2008 16:26:32 PM

Good News

A bad economy is actually good news for some people.

CaliforniaGuy of CA @ Dec 01, 2008 15:56:54 PM

China is not about to break up

Over 90% of Chinese are Han Chinese and speak Mandrin. Do a little research and anyone can see China is not similar to Indonesia, Iraq, or the old Soviet Union, all of which were "put together" in very recent histroy. China, as a civilization, has held together for thousands of years. Does anyone REALLY think China is going to break up? It is laughable.

Zhi Nan of MA @ Dec 01, 2008 14:58:34 PM

If Gov't Collapses

If the current government collapses, China will likely become a menace. I can imagine Maoists tapping into the growing class resentment and gaining support from migrant workers and rural folks. I can see nationalists demanding Taiwan be "liberated" by force and pressing for war with Japan over trivialities. The US--currently viewed by many Chinese as the self-righteous and arrogant older brother--would likely be perceived as the "evil empire."

It's not in anyone's interest to see the current regime toppled or even weakened. A democratic China will be a dangerous and unpredictable nation. With the current regime, we at least know who we're dealing with.

Besides, the current regime has done a good job.

Andrew of WA @ Dec 01, 2008 13:41:46 PM

Preventing social unrest WILL be top of the agenda

Michael Johnson

The Chinese were suckered in that they were the provider for the US, but they got quite a good deal out of it too...

Michael Lou

The author is not trying to say that China will collapse, but is rather pointing out the problems she faces in the global economic downturn: these are not problems western countries face. Hu said himself unemployment is china's greatest concern due to potential instability. China's continued unity and stability is simply NOT a certainty as you seem to think it is: why do you think the propaganda department and great firewall exist? Why are tibet/xj/taiwan such issues? And can you speak for the millions of migrant workers drifting round the country?

Pauline

What do you base this opinion on? It is simply incorrect that Chinese have been more hurt in the opening and reform than the cult rev and grt leap forward. A revival of maoism is unlikely - much more likely is the emergence of some kind of nationalistic ideology. Also, keeping china unified is not that simple...reversion to maoism would be an absolute disaster...

Salmonfish @ Dec 01, 2008 12:29:37 PM

No way

Any serious opposition to the current leadership of China will be MAOIST, not separatist, not even in Tibet.

Academics in the USA ought to leave their ideologies long enough to take a quick look at the actual experience of the Chinese people; instead, you all seem to believe your own lies.

A lot of people were hurt during the Cultural Revolution, but a lot more have been hurt and profoundly by what has occurred since, by which I mean great poverty in the countryside and the destruction of famlies by the migrant worker system (300 million strong). Many artists and professionals were reduced to abject poverty for their participation in the CPCR, a material fact on the ground, not vacuous propaganda made on far away peoples.

No one in China is "pro-American" like the Israelis are, for instance. How could they be after generations of abuse starting with the Opium War by the west?

Pauline Moore of NY @ Dec 01, 2008 11:22:09 AM