Capital Commerce

The Biggest News of the Week!

By James Pethokoukis

Posted: November 21, 2008

This may seem like an archane, wonky point to some, but yesterday the S&P 500's dividend yield nudged above the yield on the Treasury 10-year note. That has not happened since 1958, the year when the dividend yield first slipped below bond yields. Back then, it was a sign of greater comfort with holding stocks, that some of the nervousness from the Great Depression had finally faded.

Today, the oppposite action could mean a tipping point in people's attitudes toward holding stocks. Not that I could really blame them given the horrible return from stocks over the past decade or so. But to abandon the stock market as a way of building net worth would be a shame with market down so much. Terrible timing, especially since the stock market is our only escape from the meager retirement returns being promised by Social Security.

 

The stock market is not "our" escape from meager returns (as in for ALL of us) and it never has been. The modern stock markets of the world are hog troughs for the best of the fast-lane traders and a potential trap for a far greater number of others.

We need to stop "dreaming" about the market as though it were a lottery we all can win.

As for meager returns, interest rates are too low on the bank CDs and have been held too low too long. It is likely that higher rates in the last two decades would have PREVENTED the twin bubbles of tech stocks followed by housing. Where were REAL economists?

of @ Nov 21, 2008 12:30:21 PM

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Capital Commerce

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