Capital Commerce

Petraeus for President? Betting Market Alert!

By James Pethokoukis

Posted: October 15, 2008

I am an admitted Intrade betting market junkie. (A spectator only, mind you.) And I hope the day after the election, it launches contracts for the 2012 presidential race. If Barack Obama loses, it's gotta be HRC and then a bunch of other dudes, right? And if John McCain loses—an 80 percent probability, according to Intrade—Sarah Palin would have to be considered either the front-runner or pretty darn close to it, you betcha. I imagine Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee might also be in the mix, too.

But what about Gen. David Petraeus? Petraeus was mentioned as a possible surprise McCain veep pick this time around—there is a huge photo at McCain HQ of the two of them shaking hands—and is rumored to harbor high political ambitions. And I just read this bit of inside analysis about a possible Petraeus presidential bid from geopolitical strategist Tom Barnett, though he thinks 2016 is more likely:

My guess? Petraeus looms large in an Obama administration—the honest broker of [civilian-military] relations (like Powell aspired to be when Clinton came in). Then, just like Powell, there will be talk of Petraeus running for president come 2016 (along with premature, loose talk in 2012, because I suspect he'll still be in uniform, replacing Mullen as [Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff]—even if some rules must be bent (and I may be mixing up the logical dates on this). At that point he'll be 64 and my guess is he'll still be able to crank somewhere in the range of 6-min miles, which is frightening to consider. And no, despite the age range, Petraeus wouldn't signal the return of the Boomer presidency. Far more than McCain, in my mind, this guy constitutes his own political genus—like an Ike (to whom he will be compared if he does anything in Afghanistan that resembles his success in Iraq). And if I assume he'd be a center-right candidate (educated guess, but guess nonetheless), he'd be the GOP's perfect follow-up to an Obama presidency. Actually, it's almost sick to start hypothesizing about 2012 and 2016, but such is the nature of the beast.

Me: But where is he on the Paulson plan, for it or agin' it?

Shermanesque reply...

Gen Petraeus, is willing to serve his Country, as a military man. I now his political ambitions are as he put it, "Shermanesque", in an e-mail a while back. I see no reason for him to have a change of mind.

**** JArmy ****

John Armendariz of CA @ Nov 01, 2008 09:06:54 AM

Joe The Plumber

I wonder what sort of odds Intrade would give on the political futures of Sarah Palin withdrawing now at the final hurdle and Joe the Plumber stepping in to save McCain's campaign.

@ Oct 16, 2008 10:24:15 AM

Petraeus would get further as a Dem nominee.

I'd love to see Petraeus run as a third party-Tory-like conservative modeled after GB's David Cameron, or run as a Democrat. The nativists, evangelicals and other kooks have taken over the GOP. If you're a foreign policy and fiscal conservative, but you're also a social liberal or an agnostic, the modern GOP does not want you.

I'm no fan of the Dems and their great love for huge government policies, but right now they're the only place to go for political moderates and centrists.

Jim of NY @ Oct 16, 2008 04:15:28 AM

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Capital Commerce

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U.S. News business reporter Matthew Bandyk examines the issues, people, and debates that shape the nexus of political and economic life in the nation's capital.

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