Stock Market Crash: How to Stop It

There is an end and a Beginning to all Recessions

Gosh! I just keep getting amazed at such comments from economists who are supposed to be "educated" about the economy. Yet everything I keep reading smacks of fear and panic. Doesn't any economist study history anymore? And hasn't anyone under 40 ever read Benjamin Graham's "How to Read a Financial Statement"??

Yes it is very easy to predict how long this recession will last and how deep it will be. It is a simple mathematical process to work it out folks.

Before I explain that let me just preface this by stating that no politician or economics pendant ever admits or even mentions we are in a recession until AFTER the recession is over.

Now let's make this simple the U.S.A. and the world by default are facing something we haven't seen since the Savings and Loan mess of the 80's. We are facing a financial crisis recession made worse by the fact we are also in an inflationary recession. Anytime you combine both a financial crisis recession and an inflationary recession together you get a lot of pain. And worse you get a recession that isn't going to end in a couple of quarters.

Expect this recession to last 3 to 5 years folks with a lot of fall out in its wake. But like all recessions and the previous two depressions we will come through it and recover.

This is not simple optimism on my part but rather simple mathematical and historical fact.

So many of you are worrying about what the Democrats will do to the economy fearful that they will break it because of their tax and spend policies. But hey folks it’s this exact policy that we need to pull us out of recession!

There have been 32 Depression/Recessions in the last 150 years and all but 1 was due to the policies of Republican administrations and all were recovered during Democratic administrations. I don't make this statement lightly nor with any party affiliation. It is a simple fact. The Republicans have retracted and the Democrats have historically expanded. It is this cyclical symbiosis that has driven our capitalist way of life.

So realize we are following the natural cycle of a capitalist economy. As I always like to quote the good word “there will be 7 years of feast followed by 7 years of famine so be prepared!”

Finally my thoughts: The Dow will bottom at around 7000 points as will all markets retract by 50 to 60% of their pre recession value. Crude Oil will stabilize in March 09 at 75 to 80 dollars per barrel and gas will stabilize at $1.99 to 2.25 per gallon. The recession that no one wants to admit has been going on since 2006 will come to conclusion March 2010. Unemployment will reach 8.9% by Jan 2009 but will shrink to 5% by March 2010. Inflation will expand to 7% in the coming year but will retract to 2.1% by March 2010. Lending rates will stabilize after the collapse of two more MAJOR banks collapse (those of you that read my other articles know I previously predicted the two recent collapses and you know the two I am speaking of now).

Panic in the market will continue until after the election and for some months to come. Wait until Jan 09 before reinvesting into the markets!

See it is very easy to espouse what will happen to the economy. What’s more I can back up all these predictions with proper mathematical models and historical data to support these positions. So again my question is if simple poorly educated little me can do this I have to wonder why oh why can’t the people who are suppose to be in charge not be able to do this and calm the people down???

Allen Miller of NJ @ Oct 10, 2008 18:34:43 PM