Economic Model Predicts an Obama Landslide

Owns what???

McCain offers nothing and in his past voting record has DONE nothing worth noting as "leadership". In the reality based world the economic policies of the Bush Administration and the apparent embrace (95% VOTING record of supporting Bush)of these policies by McCain would GUARANTEE a Democratic victory . . . with any other Democratic candidate.

But the record shows too many would rather vote for someone they'd like to have beer with, rather than one who would help you earn enough to PAY for one . . .

Jess Wonderin of CA @ Jul 25, 2008 16:52:41 PM

12 out of 14

Let me guess, the 2 elections where the model (and the exit polls) didn't accurately predict the winner were 2000 and 2004.

Can you say "stolen elction"?

t-bone of NJ @ Jul 25, 2008 13:26:10 PM

When you're assessing factors

Don't forget to factor in election fraud. The Kerry camp was very complacent too.

JMarra of MO @ Jul 25, 2008 09:05:23 AM

economics

We have an economic situation we haven't seen in about 70 years and it's only going to be worse come November. People tend to blame the party in power (read GOP) for the problems. Can Obama fix anything? I personally don't think it can be fixed. It has to completely collapse first. But I surley don't want someone asscoiated with Phil Gramm picking up the pieces.

mikefromtexas of @ Jul 25, 2008 03:51:37 AM

GOP does own the issue

One thousand percent correct, Patrick, the GOP does own the oil price issue from getting our troops killed for oil in a war based on lies to profiteering on high oil prices and continued lies, the GOP owns the responsibility for our current economic crisis lock, stock, and (overpriced) barrel.

Seems like we'll be ending another Bush presidency with yet another bank bailout. I wonder how many Bushes will directly benefit from this one.

clichy of NY @ Jul 25, 2008 02:42:15 AM

GOP owns this issue?

The model takes into account real income growth and the unemployment rate besides energy prices. For the large majority of Americans real income growth over the past eight years has been modest at best, and if current unemployment was calculated using the same metrics used during the Carter administration it would top 10%. Neither of these figures favor the GOP. As for the issue of oil prices, there are millions of Americans who would laugh at the notion of the GOP "owning" that issue, in spite of what Fox News and Rush would have you believe.

And while the model does not take into account the dramatic decline in housing values for large portions of the country and the attendant spike in foreclosures from California to Colorado to Michigan to Florida, you can be assured that the people affected are not exactly thrilled with the current situation.

None of this guarantees that Obama will win, but insofar as the economic issues are concerned, they are clearly not in McCain's favor.

Unless you agree with Phil Gramm that Americans are "whiners" that is.

bluestatedon of MI @ Jul 24, 2008 12:12:10 PM

Yes really

Sorry Patrick, but these models generally predict election results very well. What they don't include this year, however, is the candidate's race. It is unclear how much race will dampen Obama's support as political scientists have never been able to measure this as a variable before.

John Oliver of IL @ Jul 24, 2008 00:15:10 AM