The Strangest Recession in Economic History

You're Missing a Fundamental Point

"Now I went back and checked the numbers for the past 50 years and didn't find a single case of a recession—as calculated by the National Bureau of Economic Research—that started with or contained two straight quarters of positive GDP growth, much less three quarters."

^You are assuming that the reported figures for Q1 and Q2 are done being revised. That very well may be the case but it is by no means absolute. As an example, GDP in Q1 2001 was initially reported as up 2%. We now know that quarter contracted by .5%. Needless to say, subsequent revisions to Q1 and Q2 of this year may indeed show contraction rather than expansion.

Dan Greenhaus of NY @ May 30, 2008 11:57:19 AM

GDP? What's inflation REALLY?

GDP numbers posted by the fed. gov. use inflation in their numbers. They used something like 2.6% last time. How is inflation 2.6% when gas has been inflating by, say, 10% in the same period, food, say 5% in the same period, health care...insurance rates...college education... How is the inflation rate 2.6%?

Also, what happens as the dollar's value continues to decline? We're in an increasingly global economy, now, so how do Americans stack up when they want to buy something on, say, the global market? Or to travel abroad? Is "inflation" still "2.6%" when the dollar has gone, from 2000-2008, from about 1.2 Euros to about .66 Euros, e.g.? But then, I guess "inflation" may not be as pronounced when noone can afford anything anymore, so reduces demand... Is the economy "OK" when that happens because lack of capability to buy reduces demand and so inflation?

Joe of CO @ May 30, 2008 10:19:47 AM

America Equity - borrowing from our children

Everything I've read and experienced points to a Federal Government that uses measures of economic health that are out of step with everyday Americans.

If you're a family of 4 with an income of 50k (or even 90k), you are getting hit in the chops by gas, heating, health care, and food costs.

I really don't care what the CPI says, it's a load of crap. The devaluation of the dollar due to the printing of fiat currency combined with unmatched borrowing to keep expanding the money supply is hurting America. What happens when there's no more equity to take out of your home? You live within your means and pay down debt. When will America run out of equity and start to repay?

JeffA of PA @ May 30, 2008 10:00:15 AM

'We are in the midst of a virtual recession because the democrats need one for the fall election.'

I'm of much the same opinion.

rmark of @ May 30, 2008 09:56:50 AM

virtual recession

We are in the midst of a virtual recession because the democrats need one for the fall election.

redmanrt of FL @ May 30, 2008 05:08:47 AM

Inflationary?

How can we tell if the expansion is fueled by productivity, versus driven by inflation? In the latter case, the recession is merely delayed (past the election), at the expense of being worse later than it would be if it happened now.

Seerak of CA @ May 29, 2008 22:07:40 PM

Short recession

I think we had a recession start in December, but that it is going to end in June - 6 months total.

The yield curve is steepening again - another sign of recovery.

So it is almost over. Growth will be weak for the next 18 months, though.

If oil falls back below $120, the stock market will move upwards.

Tood of CA @ May 29, 2008 19:42:09 PM

recession?

Wow dude, let's us guys party down and call it 'stagflation'. Or 'That 70's Show!"

carmelo of FL @ May 29, 2008 19:34:52 PM