A Bullish Scenario for the Economy and Market

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Obama/Clinton reinspire consumer confidence? When they are talking about renegotiating trade deals, blocking other trade deals, wanting to raise tariffs against China (actually, both sides are talking about doing this), suing OPEC, preventing domestic oil production, wanting to impose restrictive regulations to curtail the perceived threat of global warming, and I won't even address their foreign policy beliefs.

I have more reason to be afraid of an Obama presidency than to be "inspired" to go on a consumption binge. And you are correct, Daniel, that markets usually does what you DON'T expect. Just look at gas and consumers. People are still buying gas in droves, still carrying on with their travel plans, still driving as if there is no tomorrow. So some sections of the economy (financials, housing) are doing miserably, but others (travel, retail) are doing fine. But do not be led to believe that consumers don't respond to incentives (and disincentives). Even liberal economists believe that raising taxes when the economy can be teetering towards a recession is a mistake.

Just on a different note, I am pretty sure James has more access to information about global markets than most of you here. Instead of trying to insult the guy, try arguing why he is wrong.

Chris of AZ @ May 23, 2008 12:50:55 PM

Political factor

Something else that could help cause a stock rally in America:

Obama/Clinton win big and re-inspire consumer confidence.

Some say, no way! Counterintuitive! Democrats cause tax increases. Would scare the market. But remember, the market usually does what you DON'T expect.

Daniel David of NM @ May 23, 2008 12:32:08 PM

Disagree on first pending note itself

You Say - Non-U.S. central banks consider rate cuts to fight growth slowdown (pending?)

I Ask- How can emerging countries cut rates with such high inflation level.

For example, today India's inflation is whopping 7.8% and still going up.

There is no way the banks their will cut rates.

Ditto with rest of the BRIC

Anyway, one day markets will begin to rise, eventually

Anil Passi of CA @ May 23, 2008 09:03:04 AM

As long as we are having fun with the usual meaningless fluff...

Non-U.S. central banks consider rate hikes to fight inflation (pending?)

U.S. Fed hikes interest rate (pending?)

Rate differentials support dollar rally (is a myth)

Commodity prices begin to correct (recession is comming?)

Housing down another 20% (pending?)

Capital flight from the US accelarates (pending?)

Obama elected president (pending?)

of @ May 22, 2008 23:18:46 PM

international vs us stocks

what tea leaves are you reading that would leave you to believe that growth in eastern europe, southeast asia, asia, south america and the middle east is slowing down?

and where exactly is the growth in the u.s. economy going to come from-especially comparatively speaking?

until we control the blatent corporate greed and out of control debt and expenditures in the u.s. it seems to me there is little chance for sustained growth across broad industries.

jim hyndman of NY @ May 22, 2008 15:25:24 PM

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Capital Commerce

U.S. News business reporter Matthew Bandyk examines the issues, people, and debates that shape the nexus of political and economic life in the nation's capital.

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