The Recession That Wasn't

Meaningless statistics

The problem is that the way we now measure CPI has been changed by the Clinton then the Bush administration. If we were to calculate CPI the way they did before, the number would be about 3 to 4% higher. Now you take this and use it to calculate the real Q1 GDP... surpirse surprise it is now negative by around 1%.

(See http://www.shadowstats.com/) Try to use M3 money supply to get another reading of the inflation? the Fed has stop calculating M3 around the time they last modified the CPI... The Fed said it was expensive and didn't really need it anymore...ummmm. This sort of behavior is typical of this administration, when you don't like 'em numbers, just change how they are calculated. Seriously it doesn't take a wisard to know prices are skyrockeing and eventually it'll feed into the CPI. How ironius the CPI is now a lagging indicator!!! What is really sad now is that when it does feed in, it'll be to late, the inflation genius will already be out of the bottle.

And btw, the same scam is applied to the unemployment figures. "Same same but different" as they say in Thailand.

So no we are not in a recession, in fact the economy looks really good based on the "numbers"

Christian @ May 09, 2008 19:54:17 PM

...an educated and degreed woman...

Maybe if, instead of getting educated and degreed, you had learned the sorts of skills that would make you an asset to an employer, they would find it in their best interest to hire you.

Just a thought.

Ignorance is Bliss of NH @ May 09, 2008 19:44:46 PM

CPI

(try saying, I'll only pay the price in the Consumer Price Index) see how far it gets you.

Well, it gets me a lot farther for technology and somewhat farther for medical care. Not as far for food or fuel. Yes, they exclude some signifcant inflationary items from the calculation, but they also badly underestimate the increased value for you money from technological advances.

Ignorance is Bliss of NH @ May 09, 2008 19:38:06 PM

Dear Patsy

Please Google the words "liberal Economic Policy Institute" and then try telling us again how the EPI is nonpartisan. This outfit's been peddling economic chicken-littlism since its founding in 1986 by the likes of Robert Kuttner -- you know, the guy who co-founded that other font of objective commentary, The American Prospect.

Sven Eichmann of SC @ May 09, 2008 19:07:31 PM

Dear Patsy

Please Google the words "liberal Economic Policy Institute" and then try telling us again how the EPI is nonpartisan. This outfit's been peddling economic chicken-littlism since its founding in 1986 by the likes of Robert Kuttner -- you know, the guy who co-founded that other font of objective commentary, The American Prospect.

Sven Eichmann of @ May 09, 2008 19:01:44 PM

Recession

Of course, we can't be in a recession since you can eliminate everything inflationary from the calculation, see: http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/0624.html. Unfortuationaly, real people, in the real world, have to pay real prices. We can't pay the fictional ones in the "Consumer Price Index", that the gov't provides (try saying, I'll only pay the price in the Consumer Price Index) see how far it gets you.

of NY @ May 09, 2008 18:58:13 PM

Reminds me ..

If the definition of recession/depression:

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.

A depression is when you lose your job.

Zach of DC @ May 09, 2008 18:49:31 PM

Recession or expansion

Assuming the NBER definition, wouldn't we be in expansion if the 4th quarter was the lowest GDP growth and per your data 1st quarter was 2x 4th quarter and 2nd quarter would be 2x 1st quarter.

It would seem that the lowest GDP quarter followed by a 2x growth followed by a 2x growth would match the trough to peak, not peak to trough of the NBER definition.

So whatever definition you use (2 back to back quarters of decline or peak and trough), we aren't in a recession.

yetanotherjohn of TX @ May 09, 2008 18:29:42 PM