Can the Economy Survive $200-a-Barrel Oil?

it has a lot to do with talk

if you want oil prices to go down say that they will, talk about the abundace of oil, and cut back severley on energy at the same time. these investors are people too and if they hear through the grape vine that there is no more oil, and the world is coming too an end then they are going to keep buying these futures and its going to send them sky high. Why? Becasue they are scared, they are trying to combat inflation. I know its not the full reason but quit scaring them by talking peessimistcally about the future of energy and think positive but at the same time cut back on your uses. Turn off lights you arent using, read a book instead of tv, make a sandwhich instead of cooking, turn on the fan istead of the A/c and stop wasting. Your future is in your hands- make a change and be sure to talk about all the oil out there that we aren't ever going to use becasue believe me it's there but it won't be if we don't chage.

B Man of TX @ May 28, 2008 13:42:05 PM

informed opinion

I've been doing a lot of research on this(peak oil), and the future of the world as we know it. There are a lot of contrasting opinions and facts out there. From everything that I've read we might be at peak oil, but we are no where near a decline. The us alone has enough oil reserved to supply the whole world for about a year, and our own demand for about 3 or four years. In case you don't know we haven't tapped into it yet even though people have been lobbying for it. The U.S. sees no need because as the world we are keeping up with demand and there is lots of oil out there. Mainly it's just these dam investors that keep escalating the price even after hearing good news about the king of Saudi increasing production for the u.s. MAKE NO MISTAKE WE NEED TO CHANGE, because our oil reserves are just that - they are reserves. Many of our sources of oil in which we get 3/4 of our oil is either declining or there are politics on top of politics which most people can't even understand. Even though we presently have decent enough relations with Saudi they cant be trusted and all of opec that surrounds them. Opec which consists of all the middle eatern countries prduce about two thirds of the worlds oil, and in Saudi's and others case rely almost exclusivley on oil for their economy. That's why they cant be trusted. Opec was established by these countries to regulate the amount of oil produced and to have an impact on price. Starting about 15 years ago all of these countries at some point had a huge increase in their estimated oil reserves which in my opinion is more that suspect and definatley inaccurate. So the most pessimistic of these peak oil guys probably believe that they are on a decline, but I'm sure they still have plenty although probably half of what they claim. Never the less these guys are going to use their oil to their adavantage and milk it as long as they can, and if they can get the price up by talking or regulating then they will. If everyone would just cut back on energy as much as possible for as long as possible then these investors will eventually stabilize the price and these middle easterners won't be taking advantage quite as much.

B Man of TX @ May 28, 2008 13:31:27 PM

informed opinion

I've been doing a lot of research on this(peak oil), and the future of the world as we know it. There are a lot of contrasting opinions and facts out there. From everything that I've read we might be at peak oil, but we are no where near a decline. The us alone has enough oil reserved to supply the whole world for about a year, and our own demand for about 3 or four years. In case you don't know we haven't tapped into it yet even though people have been lobbying for it. The U.S. sees no need because as the world we are keeping up with demand and there is lots of oil out there. Mainly it's just these dam investors that keep escalating the price even after hearing good news about the king of Saudi increasing production for the u.s. MAKE NO MISTAKE WE NEED TO CHANGE, because our oil reserves are just that - they are reserves. Many of our sources of oil in which we get 3/4 of our oil is either declining or there are politics on top of politics which most people can't even understand. Even though we presently have decent enough relations with Saudi they cant be trusted and all of opec that surrounds them. Opec which consists of all the middle eatern countries prduce about two thirds of the worlds oil, and in Saudi's and others case rely almost exclusivley on oil for their economy. That's why they cant be trusted. Opec was established by these countries to regulate the amount of oil produced and to have an impact on price. Starting about 15 years ago all of these countries at some point had a huge increase in their estimated oil reserves which in my opinion is more that suspect and definatley inaccurate. So the most pessimistic of these peak oil guys probably believe that they are on a decline, but I'm sure they still have plenty although probably half of what they claim. Never the less these guys are going to use their oil to their adavantage and milk it as long as they can, and if they can get the price up by talking or regulating then they will. If everyone would just cut back on energy as much as possible for as long as possible then these investors will eventually stabilize the price and these middle easterners won't be taking advantage quite as much.

B Man of TX @ May 28, 2008 13:31:06 PM

End of the World as we know it....

People talk about the alternative energy sources and the means to convert them into usable energy for all the modern conveniences we all have become accustomed to as if they're not all that difficult and wouldn't take whole lot of time, money and energy (as in oil) to develop or make them affordable to most of us. But in my opinion, they will take time, money and energy before they can be, if ever, available to us at reasonable prices. Just about everything we use today comes from the oil and made by the machines that run on oil, and with oil price going up higher and higher everything else will be priced higher as well, resulting in continous erosion of our buying power. Whether we want to admit or not, the days of cheap oil are gone forever and we're now looking at the era of expensive oil because of the supply shortage due to prohibitive cost and environmental effects of converting remaining oil, which is less desirable and dirtier, to usable energy. Moreover, most of the oil producing countries solely depend on their oil export for survival and they will not be bullied by other countries to exhaust their oil supply, which I believe half or more of it is already been used up, in a short period of time to control the oil price because that would certainly end their survival as we know it. With them controlling the oil supply so as to maintain their existence and survivability for as long as they can, rest of the world will initially scramble to get what oil they can get from the open market but eventually the demand will outweight the supply so much that desperation will set in countries like China, India, entire Europe and North America and they will invade the oil supplying countries in the Middle East (wait, America has already invaded Iraq for oil, in my opinion) and try to take the oil by force, and of course this means WW III and the end of the world. I think we're 20 years too late to resolve the looming oil crisis which should kick in about 5 to 10 years from now, resulting in a complete collapse of world's economy and the beginning of the end of the world. God, please help us!

of CA @ May 24, 2008 01:14:22 AM

Energy...

This is hilarious. Everyone complains about the "cost" of energy. And then suggests 'alternatives' that are exponentially more expensive, far less efficient and the majority of them cannot supply a peak load. It seems like a room full of stock brokers, and accountants trying to discuss thermodynamics and power plant technology.

Solar - EXTREMELY expensive, huge foot print, innefficient (currently), will NEVER supply peak load.

Hydro - Only one point to make for this: We can't exactly increase our hydro production...every dam/river/waterfall is already producing.

Geothermal - the efficiency for this is a joke, huge foot print, and very expensive. The ecological consequences of this are potentially worse than any coal, gas, or nuclear plant.

Wind - More than 50% of the country does not have enough wind to even kick on a wind turbine. This will only work for coastal areas and high elevation. It cannot supply a peak load. IE. you can't make the wind blow faster. Oh...and it leaves a huge foot print.

Tidal - Still has decades of research and product development before this is even considered...currently its extremely expensive, and the maintenance will be potentially lethal (i.e. you will need divers), and very costly.

Coal (rankine / combined cycle) is still the most effective source of energy we have (i.e. cost, capacity factor, and availability factor combined). Nuclear would come in a very close second in my opinion. Use up the coal and nuclear while we develop more on 'realistic' renewables....

But still what is the answer to peak loads when all our coal/gas is gone?

The key is to 'slowly' implement other energy sources for electricity. The immediate issue is to fix car drivers. Cars consume far more energy than what is needed to supply a home with electricity. Automobile manufacturers need to quit making huge SUV's and TRUCKS for rednecks and napolean syndrome soccer moms.

dex of AZ @ May 21, 2008 15:39:40 PM

World supply for 2008 is estimated at 87.2 millions barrels of crude per day with no disruptions.

World DEMAND for 2008 is reported at 87.6 at the very least.

debtamendment.com

Robert of TX @ May 17, 2008 07:08:18 AM

And I still have a car for high value trips

PS. while I ride a bike most of the time, even picking up groceries with the capacious panniers, I DO have a sweet Alfa Romeo for those trips where the bike isn't practical. But my fuel costs are very minimal compared to most of my neighbours. I fill the tank ($80) about once every 3 weeks thanks to cycling. Being outside the metal and glass box that is the office and the car and humming along on two wheels is awakening and refreshing...I get to see the stars, feel the wind and yes even the rain on my face. Don't like a challenge? Harden up.

JohnL @ May 10, 2008 10:18:18 AM

trotting out tired arguments about biking

Realist of UT trots out the same old tired arguments about why riding a bike to work is not realistic. Dude, you slam riding a bike as dangerous (run over by car) but then suggest a scooter? Crash statistics show that while cycling is not far off walking in injuries per km., motor scooters/cycles are 8x higher risk than cycling. Given adequate training on how to ride in traffic, the vast majority of people, any age, could ride for a lifetime and not get hit by a car. Put someone on a bike in traffic with no training and I agree with you, Mr. Realist. The UK and now NZ have level 1,2,3 cycle skills training programmes for children and adults that are very effective in minimising risk. Sweaty? Either slow down, be patient (you will get fitter, rapidly!) or wear appropriate clothes and change at work. No locker room at work? Petition the employer. It really isn't hard, but you have to be willing to make a lifestyle change.

JohnL @ May 10, 2008 10:11:12 AM