Dude, Where's My Recession?

GDP per Capita

It should be pointed out that the main definition of recession has little real meaning in the lives of most people. A much better measure is GDP per capita. When GDP fails to grow as fast as population growth you are in recession. The lives of the average person are getting worse. By this definition we are already in a recession.

The Economist ran a great article on this a couple months back if anyone wants to read more.

jesse of NY @ May 01, 2008 22:59:16 PM

Bush outsmarts them -- yet again

W has the same move: Sit back, let the Dems demand something, then give it to them. It's incredible. His father made the mistake of coming out of a (very, very mild) downturn one quarter too late; he should have taken it in the 2nd Q (the way W is), not the 3rd. The economy will be spritely by July, roaring in September; same with oil: let the futures geeks extend themselves to the max, allow the early summer refinery switchover to take full effect, then open the spigots on the SOR to full--and once again, he's not outstupided. W is really amazing. I'll bet he indicts a few of them too.

Joe Y of PA @ May 01, 2008 20:30:03 PM

recession? Only under the GOP...

There HAS to be a recession. The Democrats said so. The MSM said so. The Democrats need one because they need to blame Bush for a bad economy. Finally. Only if there is a recession, are the Dems able to justify a change. God forbid that Bush gets any credit for anything at all. Complete employment. Stock Market over 11000. Lately, it seems as if recessions only happen if the media convinces the public that there is one happening. If you examine the actual causes of the slow down, liberal policies will be a big reason. Too much gov't interference. Too much spending. To much grandstanding about oil and the war. How is demanding that the oil companies give up 10 billion dollars going to lower the price of oil? NO exploration. No nukes. Too much pork. Remember the banks worrying about "red lining" bad credit risks and they were forced to find a way to lend to those people? It wasn't about race. It was about risk. And now, those risks have become actual liabilities. Fancy that.

Cargosquid-United Conservatives of Virginia of VA @ May 01, 2008 20:00:42 PM

What?

Oh my, what is Sen. Obama (D-Buyer's Remorse) going to do now? "Change!" "Hope!"

Denny, Alaska of AK @ May 01, 2008 17:51:48 PM

Capital gains, and classification of "rich"

I simply can't vote for a candidate, regardless of party, who talks down to us like we are unaware of the numbers.

I cannot accept that my parents may have to pay even more capital gains on their retirement property simply because they were patient and made wise real estate choices over the last thirty years.

I cannot accept the lowering of the classification of "rich", raising taxes even higher on a group of people who already pay 39% of their income to taxes.

We read the actual news, so we know.

Lewis Salem of NC @ May 01, 2008 15:23:37 PM

My economy

I am in sales (selling to suppliers of consumer product manufacturers) and first qarter was good - about 20% over plan. My biggest customer, which had been lagging called today and said they were increasing orders because things are picking up. They sell to paint manufacturers - so paint is picking up. Guess what that means? Yeah - walls need to be painted both re - decorations and new construction. Best investment acive I've ever read (Gerald Appel) is to do the counter-media strategy, becasue business reporting is 180 degrees off. when the NY Times say eeverything is bad,bad, bad it is time to buy, buy, buy. Sell on good news. Remember newspapers employ journalism majors - the first ones to say "They didn't tell me there was math in this class!"

C guy of OH @ May 01, 2008 14:21:14 PM

Recession - the primary definition

To: "Not so bad" (by Dave Green of NC)

If history bores you, scroll to the end of my tale for my thoughts on what "recession" means to the proletariat.

You might be amazed at the number of who people remember the Great Depression quite well. You can check goverment statistics for the number of people over 100, and the number born during the Depression. Visit nearly any retirement or nursing home in the country and you'll meet other people who remember those Depression years. Ask them to share their stories.

My five-generation family of over 200 (including spouses) has a motto: If you don't have cash for 'wants' don't buy them, and always put as much as you can into a investments that pay interest. The only exception is family homes bought with fixed-rate mortgages paid off as soon as possible.

The eldest two generations in my family remember the Great Depression. The ages of generation 1 still living are 104, 102, 99, and 85. All were born and raised on a small ranch bought by an ancestor in the 1840s. During the Depression the family fared reasonably well by selling livestock and poultry and, except for sugar, coffee and rice, raised their own food. The eldest three graduated from a 'teacher's' college, their tuition paid by working as housekeepers 'in town' supplemented by their mother's 'chicken and egg' money. The first two returned to the ranch and taught grades 1 - 12 in a two-room schoolhouse. The third married and taught school in another state. They still have sharp brains and an avid interest in history and politics. The youngest, with his two sons, runs the family ranch. They have no 'hired' hands. His work begins at dawn and ends at sundown, six days a week.

My dad, whose parents were very poor, worked his way through college and grad school and was in the Navy during WWII. During the war we lived in Richmond, CA. Food and many other things were rationed, so we grew what vegetables we could in the garden of our tiny house. An elderly widow in back of us raised chickens. We traded vegetables for chickens and eggs. Mom made most our clothes; the rest were hand-me-downs from older cousins, and we handed our 'out-growns' down to younger cousins.

My husband and I (Generation 2) were 'depression' babies, now in our early 80s. His family was so poor he, along with the other kids in the little town went to school barefoot. He was smart, eventually managed to work his way through medical school, and devoted his career to serving the poor. He never became a 'rich' doctor' but we always set aside what we could for retirement because we though of "Social Security" as a Ponzi scheme for political use.

Finally, RECESSION. American Heritage Dictionary, Fourth Edition: "recession: 1. The act of withdrawing. 2. An extended, moderate decline in general business activity."

By definition #1, many people who aren't greedy and/or 'flippers' are withdrawing j(receeding) from spending on "wants". The cost of their needs (food, gas, clothing) have risen far faster than their incomes or, in the case of retirees, income from conservative investments. A great fear of knowledgeable proletariats, mentioned only in passing (if at all) by the MSM, is that the Democrats, especially if Obama is elected, will take even more of their incomes when the Bush tax cuts, which so many believe affect only "the rich," expire.

Quote: On taxes, Obama again sounded confused about capital gains. He said he was "mindful that we've got to keep our capital gains tax to a point where we can actually get more revenue." So why does he want to almost double the rate? He claimed "that's not something that's going to affect the average person with a 401(k)," even though it's a tax hike on the 100 million Americans who own stock. Source: "Obama's Fox Trot" - Investor's Business Daily - Posted Monday, April 28, 2008

Quote: At a June 28, 2004 Democratic fundraiser in San Francisco, [Hillary Clinton] told supporters that "Many of you are well enough off that ... the tax cuts may have helped you," Clinton said, according to the Associated Press. "We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. "We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good."

Quote: Tampa Dave writes: Friday, February, 22, 2008 10:13 AM

The Wall Street Journal’s Steve Moore has done the math on Obama’s tax plan. He says it will add up to a 39.6 percent personal income tax, a 52.2 percent combined income and payroll tax, a 28 percent capital-gains tax, a 39.6 percent dividends tax, and a 55 percent estate tax.

People suffering from the inflation of the cost of 'needs,' and who also understand the intentions of the Democrats are withdrawing (receeding) from consumerism.

Grandma Mollie of FL @ May 01, 2008 14:13:19 PM

Newspaper Network TV Recession

Where do you get the idea that all is woe?

By reading the papers and watching network TV.

Whose business model is imploding?

The newspapers and network TV.

Lemme 'splain:

Talking heads and ink-stained wretches see their pals & co-workers losing their jobs.

The scribblers are scared silly because (deep down) they're aware that they have no talents/skills/abilities that anyone values outside their hothouse media world.

Fear + (well-founded) lack of self-worth + Nano particle of evidence = Sky Falling Down!

Now you know!

PS Doin' fine in the worst state economy in the US! Help wanted signs all over...

Jagcap of MI @ May 01, 2008 13:44:58 PM