Capital Commerce

Bailout Politics: Count McCain In

By James Pethokoukis

Posted: March 25, 2008

John McCain gave further insight into his economic views today. Along with his views that 1) a cap-and-trade system is the best way to deal with carbon emissions, 2) the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts were tilted too far toward the rich, and 3) pharmaceutical companies are the "bad guys" in America's ongoing healthcare drama, you can add another view that McCain apparently shares with Democrats (and more and more Republicans in Congress): that homeowners need a taxpayer-funded bailout. Here is a key excerpt from his speech today on the housing crisis (boldface mine):

Let's start with some straight talk: I will not play election year politics with the housing crisis. I will evaluate everything in terms of whether it might be harmful or helpful to our effort to deal with the crisis we face now. I have always been committed to the principle that it is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who act irresponsibly, whether they are big banks or small borrowers. Government assistance to the banking system should be based solely on preventing systemic risk that would endanger the entire financial system and the economy. In our effort to help deserving homeowners, no assistance should be given to speculators. Any assistance for borrowers should be focused solely on homeowners, not people who bought houses for speculative purposes, to rent or as second homes. Any assistance must be temporary and must not reward people who were irresponsible at the expense of those who weren't. I will consider any and all proposals based on their cost and benefits. In this crisis, as in all I may face in the future, I will not allow dogma to override common sense. When we commit taxpayer dollars as assistance, it should be accompanied by reforms that ensure that we never face this problem again. Central to those reforms should be transparency and accountability.

My take: Based on that speech, I think it is pretty easy to see how McCain could/would go along with something remarkably similar to the bailout plan being offered in the House by Barney Frank. The Frank plan doesn't make everyone whole or hit some cosmic reset button. It applies only to owner-occupied homes, and lenders would have to accept a write-down of the principal of the loan. Plus, homeowners may have to fork over some share of the future appreciation of the home to the Department of Housing and Urban Development in order to have an existing bank loan replaced by one from Uncle Sammy.

And with the language of the speech, McCain made it clear that he won't let small-government, free-market ideology get in the way of his support of government action that he deems necessary. This is also exactly the thing that one influential conservative economic activist told me he was praying that McCain wouldn't do because it further fuzzed the differences between him and Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on spending—an issue many GOP-ers think helped cost them the 2006 congressional election.

Visualize 700 Billion

The United States Government is capitalizing on a comprehensional failure of the human mind – the inability to fully grasp the magnitude of large numbers. Upon hearing numbers beyond a few thousand our brains interpret it as, “Wow, that’s a big number!” with no tangible image to relay exactly how big. So, let’s start with a One Dollar Bill. We can understand $1.00, right?

According to the United States treasury, a One Dollar Bill has a thickness of 0.0043 inches. One thousand One Dollar Bills would be one thousand times thicker -- 4.3 inches.

One million is one thousand thousands, so the thickness of $1,000,000 is 4300 inches. Converting to feet and this becomes 358.3 feet, an American football field.

One billion -- $1,000,000,000 is one thousand times thicker still or 358,333.3 feet. This is 67.866 miles, the driving distance from New York City to Milford CT.

One Trillion is one thousand billions – one trillion One Dollar Bills stacked one on top of another is 67,866 miles. This would circumnavigate the globe 2.73 times.

The proposed 700 Billion Dollar bailout alone would be a stack of One Dollar Bills stretching 47,506.2 miles, or 1.90 times around the globe.

A stack of One Dollar Bills totaling the current national debt cap of 10.6 trillion dollars would go around the equator 28.93 times. The proposed cap of 11.3 trillion dollars would go around 30.85 times.

Is creating a debt that is the equivalent of a stack of One Dollar Bills rounding planet 31 times a responsible act?

JP of GA @ Sep 21, 2008 23:20:06 PM

Poor Mr. McCain has to walk a fine line between his shopkeeper constituency and his rich backers. The first want the market to sort it out even if it ruins them along with the borrower cheats who live on their block. The second want to prevent a steep recession even if it means rewarding the cheats, because they don't know who they are anyway. It sounds as if the second group are getting the upper hand.

NRK of VA @ Mar 26, 2008 13:34:57 PM

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Capital Commerce

Capital Commerce

U.S. News business reporter Matthew Bandyk examines the issues, people, and debates that shape the nexus of political and economic life in the nation's capital.

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