Schlesinger: No Energy Security in Sight

Electric cars somewhat a red herring

Those who simply 'relax', as one commentator here suggested, about the potential for oil supply inadequacies based on the inevitable successful development of electric cars has really not thought the concept through.

Where does the electricity come from in the first place? It varies between countries and regions of course but the answer is mostly coal then oil and natural gas - all fossil fuels. So the problem is not solved through the use of electric vehicles; it just shifts the consumption of fossil fuels to power plants which then make electricity which must get dispersed along the power grid, resulting in very significant energy loss, and then finally making it into your future electric car.

Any significant move away from combustion engines toward electric cars would require immediate large scale construction of new power plants that take fossil fuels to build and are powered by fossil fuels. See the problem? Also note that the power grid in the U.S. and many other areas is old and very much in need of huge upgrading just to continue with current power levels.

The answer to peak oil, even a protracted plateau if we are so lucky, is anything but simple. The answer is not to just relax - as a society we've been doing that in regards to energy for far too long. We need to properly analyze our entire energy production and delivery system and start building solutions right now.

Dave A @ Mar 18, 2008 14:46:56 PM

Discretionary Conservation

Heaven help us, once again we are told that "the solution is technology". Changing behaviors and adopting resource-thrifty lifestyles remain verbotten topics of conversation in the mainstream. It is insane.

Consider recreation and amusement. If we-the-people were the least bit serious about fighting our addiction to oil (and climate change too, for that matter), we would stop playing on gasoline-powered toys TOMORROW. We "need" snowmobiles, motorboats, ATVs, motorcycles, riding lawn mowers, etc. like we need a hole in the head. Human beings have managed perfectly well for thousands of years to have fun without such unsustainable extravagences.

And recreation is just one example of COMPLETELY discretionary opportunities to cut oil consumption. There's Green Exercise, Fossil-Fuel-Free Garden & Yard Care, Zero-Impact Worship, Human-Powered School Transportation, Carbon-Neutral Birthday Parties, etc.

But jawboning about technofixes means nobody has to feel bad about his/her lifestyle or lift a finger to change. We've become such spoiled, gluttonous, entitlement-obsessive brats that Reality may have to smack us aside the head with a 2x4 before we wake up and begin to act like responsible adults.

Hans Noeldner of WI @ Mar 17, 2008 23:48:59 PM

What an idiot

'Schlesinger said that he would not get into the question of "peak oil"—whether oil is running out—and added that those who believed it'

What an idiot. Where do these guys keep reading 'running out of oil' in the concept of 'peak oil production' (the most EVER PRODUCED!).

We don't need to reach peak for there to be a problem. When increasing oil production is less than increasing oil demand then prices go up. With prices at $110 there should be plenty of incentive for oil production to keep pace with demand. It just ain't happening. The margin between supply and demand is almost gone.

Doug Fletcher of CA @ Mar 15, 2008 15:53:54 PM

People will pay a lot more

Rather than trying to predict the price of gasoline, we have a calculator which shows what you will rationally pay, based on your vehicle, your trip, your alternative means of transport, and what you value your time at. So far, the median value is 8 times current prices, i.e. $24 per gallon gasoline. Of course, not everyone can afford that...

www.EnergyPredicament.com

Randy Park @ Mar 14, 2008 11:37:09 AM

Silver bullet now available

As there is not enough oil to go round, now and into the future, the guaranteed answer is to plan to use less.

It is much easier to start using less than to hope that a battery car will keep the highways at capacity. Or some other techno miracle.

If we individually start experimenting on how to do with less, we will be well ahead when there is no option but to use less. It's the old adage, leap before you are pushed.

Michael Dwyer of @ Mar 14, 2008 01:51:38 AM

Electric cars? Too late.

Peak Oil is here now, and the world will continue pumping the maximum amount of oil possible, regardless of minor improvements in gas mileage in the U.S. And changing car fleets to electric is not so easy. As gasoline prices skyrocket, many people will try to switch to more fuel efficient cars, including plug-in electric cars. But they will find that others have the same idea, and that the trade-in value of pick up trucks and SUVs has dropped significantly, making it difficult to purchase a more fuel efficient car. Also, as the price of oil increases, so too will the price of new cars of all types (much energy goes into the manufacture of cars). Facing low trade-in value on the old gas guzzler, as well as very high prices for a new car, few will make the switch. For an extended review of Peak Oil economic impacts see: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

Clifford J. Wirth of NH @ Mar 13, 2008 23:01:34 PM

Schlesinger

While we're waiting for one or more silver bullets to reach mass production, we'd better start thinking of four-day work-weeks (4 x 10 hrs instead of 5 x 8 hours) as one means of reducing both congestion

AND consumption. Cut mail delivery by one day/week also, and also impose higher fees for overnight deliveries. Hey - it really doesn't

"positively absolutely have to get there overnight." And if it does?

You didn't plan very well...

Shopping malls could close one day/week. They're practically empty anyway on Monday-Tuesday. Big energy savings here.

G. Messier of CT @ Mar 13, 2008 16:27:47 PM

Electric Car

There's also a full electric car coming out this spring (sadly only in Norway) called the Th!nk City. Costs 40,000$ US, gets 180 km per charge, max speed 100 km per hour. Acceleration is lousy, but it's the closest thing I've seen to an all-electric car with a decent range and whose price is within reach for most drivers. You pay them 200 a month and they replace the battery every five years. The zebra molten-salt battery you can get with it is worth reading up on.

If oil were to dry up completely tomorrow, a car like this could let us live (with some sacrifices) our current lifestyle without requiring a major technological breakthrough.

David @ Mar 13, 2008 14:41:45 PM